Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 110425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Update for 06z aviation only.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold
front on our western doorstep already, but it has been standing in
place there for the past 2-3 hours, awaiting its upper energy push
that will propel it on across our FA. This will come later this
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile Laps data does show that wedge of
breakout clouds has allowed MUCapes to rise into 1500 ish J/KG
range, with upwards to nearly 2500 just to our south. This area
may be short-lived however, as additional dense cloud cover is
nearby. We`ll thereby have a short window for strong/svr storm,
still in Marginal risk.

Fropa brings gusty shift to west/northwest winds and then
drier/cooler air replaces our almost summer like warm/humid
airmass for the next couple days thereafter. Dew points some
15-20F cooler are poised to usher across the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Ridging upper heights/high pressure will bring warming profile as
we head into the weekend. The next cold front takes shape and
makes passage Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are
synchronizing on this solution so we made only minor massages to
the overall long term forecast. Mainly, we direct Pops to
along/ahead of the front, ie mainly Sunday-Sunday night. In
addition, the preceding warm up, we bump up a degree or two from
the mean/blend, as well as the post frontal day 1 cooldown, where
we shave off a degree from the mean/blend. 80s/60s will be replaced
by 70s/50s, similar to the short term frontal passage.


Issued at 1121 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs for all sites tonight and some MVFR fog possible as
well. All areas will keep low cigs at least through mid day
Wednesday. Winds will be west northwest through the valid time of
the tafs. KEVV and KOWB will likely stay ovc through the valid
time of the taf. Clearing starting in the south during the day and
slowly work its way north.




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