Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
104 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Nice clearing has resulted in considerable heating over southern
Missouri. Most of the convection this morning has been well north
of the front, but convection is likely to develop near and
possibly even south of it later this afternoon. Latest HRRR runs
were indicating the best chances over the SEMO portion of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 498 after 20Z. This is likely going to be a
marginal severe event, but a few 1" hail and wind damage reports
are possible.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The cold front has entered our far northern counties and will
continue to slowly sink south thru sunrise. It should remain
generally north of a Cape Girardeau to Owensboro line, before
becoming stationary. Isolated convection has begun to pop up, and
should gradually increase. Mostly just lighter shower activity
expected thru sunrise. Fairly consistent signal on increased
convection developing over south central MO and spreading into
portions of southeast MO and southwest IL thru the morning hrs. As
such, highest PoPs were confined to these areas.

Heading into the afternoon hrs, the front is expected to slowly
shift northward, with chances of showers and storms gradually
increasing. There remains a strong signal for a sfc wave of low
pressure to develop and move northeast along the front into the
evening hrs. This will lead to an area of enhanced convection
developing over southern MO and spreading northeast.
Latest short term models have shifted the activity northwestward
some, thus keeping the best chances along our far west/northwest
counties. Eventually though the more widespread precip will move
east into more of our area thru the evening/overnight hrs.

There is some concern for strong to severe storms during the late
afternoon and early evening hrs, mainly over portions of southeast
MO, where SPC has a slight risk outlined. Although, the bulk of this
activity may end up being just northwest of our forecast area.
Backed low level flow ahead of the sfc low, dewpoints in the upper
60s to near 70, along with sufficient instability and shear
should support a few storms capable of producing damaging winds
and large hail. Heavy rainfall will also be an issue, with high PW
values for this time of yr up around 1.6 to 1.7 inches. Some
concern for training storms along the boundary, which combined
with heavy rain from earlier day storms, could cause some flooding

The upper level trough will push through on Thursday, with
precipitation tapering off from west to east thru the day, with some
lingering potential in our eastern counties thru the evening hrs.

High temperatures today are a bit tricky due to convection/cloud
cover around, but generally expecting another day in the 80s south
of the front. Cold air advection isn`t that strong yet tonight, so
temperatures should remain mild as the front progresses thru.
Northwest winds pick up in earnest on Thursday, leading to a rather
brisk day, as highs struggle into the mid 60s for all but the
southeast part of the area. Cooler air continues funneling in for
Thursday night, with lows dropping well into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Nil wx Friday through Tuesday. Model preference will be an even
blend of ensemble means for heights/msl from the GEFS/ECENS. Temps
also a blend of ensemble MOS guidance. We should remain in NW flow
aloft through Monday while the mean H5 ridge axis slowly progresses
east from the western to central U.S. by Tuesday. At the surface
high pressure will move to the southeast U.S. through the weekend.
A frontal boundary will move across the area dry Monday. The
deterministic ECMWF is a fast outlier. The ECENS/GFS/CMC are slower
and favored. In the wake of the front, large scale surface
anticyclonic flow about eastern U.S. high pressure takes over.


Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The general trend in the guidance today is to hold off the arrival
of the cold front and any precipitation at the TAF sites. Will
therefore hold off on its arrival and any precipitation until the
overnight hours. Not sure how much TS there will be at this time,
so will maintain the VCTS treatment for 3-4 hours late tonight and
into the morning hours Thursday. Guidance is bullish for IFR
conditions behind the front, but confidence is not that great, so
have limited IFR to KEVV and KOWB in the morning hours. Gusty
northwest winds should develop at all sites through the morning.




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