917
FXUS62 KTBW 212341
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
741 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and
southwest Florida for the next couple of days. Isolated showers
and possibly a thunderstorm this evening, mainly over southwest
Florida, will end by midnight with skies becoming mostly clear.
Similar conditions expected on Sunday with partly cloudy skies and
warm temperatures. Isolated mainly late afternoon/early evening
showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with the best chance of
precipitation across the interior and southwest Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weather remains pretty quiet across our area for the rest of the
weekend and early next week. Ridging will remain to our north but
will drift from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. PWs will
remain at or below 1.5. The lower PW along with ridging remaining
to our north will limit shower activity each day with only
isolated chances across the area.

Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we
call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest. At the
same time models are showing possible tropical development in the
southern Caribbean Sea. IF something develops it would head
towards this break. Right now timing, strength, and where this
break will be is still very uncertain. However, at a minimum we
will see moisture increasing which will result in better storm
chances from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024
A few showers across southwest Florida this evening with LCL VFR
CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Skies will become mostly clear after midnight.
Predominately VFR conditions on Sunday with a few
late afternoon/evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly
over the interior and southwest Florida with best chance vcnty
PGD/FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weather looks to be quiet for the weekend and early next
week as ridging remains to our north with winds out of the east or
northeast around 5 to 10 knots. There is still a lot of
uncertainty when it comes to possible tropical development in the
southern Caribbean Sea and then lift north. At a minimum we will
see winds and seas increasing starting on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Summertime humidity and convection
will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  75  92 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  10  10  30
GIF  73  92  75  93 /  10  20   0  10
SRQ  74  91  75  93 /  20  10  10  20
BKV  70  92  71  93 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  78  90  79  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt