177
FXUS62 KMLB 111120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Cold conditions this morning, with a Cold Weather Advisory in
  effect through 9 AM. Lighter winds and cold temperatures across
  Lake and Volusia counties tonight support the potential for
  frost development.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Okeechobee County for
  hazardous fire weather conditions.

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions are expected through
  tonight as strong north to northwest winds persist and seas
  remain elevated.

- Dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week with a
  gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Today-Tonight...A cold and breezy start to Tuesday, with lows
still forecast to fall into the 30s across most of east central
Florida. Areas from the Cape southward are forecast to fall into
the 40s. North to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph will cause wind
chill values to fall into the 20s to mid 30s areawide, with a Cold
Weather Advisory remaining in effect through 9 AM for all
portions of east central Florida except coastal St. Lucie and
coastal Martin counties.

Through the remainder of today, dry and breezy conditions are
forecast to persist as an area of high pressure begins to shift
towards the Florida peninsula. Winds remain out of the north to
northwest at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph forecast through
much of today, with winds slowly subsiding late this afternoon
into the overnight hours as the pressure gradient weakens locally.
At the beaches, elevated seas will lead to rough surf, with a
High Surf Advisory and a high risk of rip currents in effect at
all east central Florida beaches. Temperatures are forecast to
remain below normal today, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Tonight, lows fall into the mid to upper 30s near and
north of the I- 4 corridor and into the 40s southward and along
the coast. With winds subsiding overnight and temperatures falling
into the mid 30s in some spots, the development of frost will be
possible, particularly across portions of Lake County and inland
Volusia County. A Frost Advisory has been issued for these areas
overnight. Residents are advised to take proper precautions
relative to any sensitive plants.

Wednesday-Monday...Surface high pressure will remain in place
across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of this week
and into early next week. This will keep conditions mostly dry
through the extended period, with light northwest to northeast
winds through Friday becoming more southerly over the weekend.
Long-range guidance has backed off on rain chances late weekend
into early next week due to discrepancies between the Euro and GFS
relative to timing of the next potential frontal passage, so
would anticipate some back and forth through the extended period
on rain chances. Temperatures continue to remain below normal on
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows falling
into the 40s to mid 50s. A warming trend is then forecast through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with highs in the
70s to low 80s and low in the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions persist across the local
Atlantic waters due to prevailing north to northwest winds of 20
to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 12 feet. A Gale Warning remains in
effect for the Volusia and Brevard waters and a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect across the Treasure Coast waters. The
Volusia and Brevard waters will join the Small Craft Advisory
after gale conditions subside.

An area of high pressure is forecast to settle across the Florida
peninsula and the local Atlantic waters, with winds and seas
subsiding late tonight into Wednesday. A return of favorable
boating conditions are anticipated on Wednesday and are forecast
to prevail through the remainder of this week and into the
weekend. Northwest to northeast winds between 10 to 15 knots
continue through Friday, becoming southerly into the weekend. Seas
subside to 2 to 4 feet. Rain is not anticipated across the local
Atlantic waters through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 619 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR. Gusty NW winds continue into today - veering slightly to N
into the afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually diminish thru the
afternoon, and further tonight becoming light as the pgrad relaxes
with high pressure moving into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are forecast across
east central Florida today. A dry air mass situated across the
area will cause minimum RH values to fall into the 25-35% range
across the interior, with values along the coast remaining in the
40-50% range. Additionally, breezy north to northwest winds of 10
to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are occurring and will persist
through today, though they will gradually subside this afternoon
as an area of high pressure shifts towards the area. Okeechobee
County has been placed under a Red Flag Warning today from 10 AM
through 4 PM, with this area having the best chance of seeing
critical fire weather conditions. Other portions of the interior
will near critical thresholds, but there is less confidence at
this time in both wind and RH being met at the same time. Looking
ahead, winds diminish to 10 mph or less, with dry air remaining in
place.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Tuesday, November 11th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 11-Nov  35 1956  59
Leesburg (LEE)      11-Nov  38 1962  58
Sanford (SFB)       11-Nov  39 1962  59
Orlando (MCO)       11-Nov  39 1932  59
Melbourne (MLB)     11-Nov  42 1962  62
Vero Beach (VRB)    11-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   11-Nov  42 1991  61

Wednesday, November 12th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 12-Nov  40 1995  59
Leesburg (LEE)      12-Nov  38 1991  58
Sanford (SFB)       12-Nov  40 1968  59
Orlando (MCO)       12-Nov  35 1913  59
Melbourne (MLB)     12-Nov  42 1968  61
Vero Beach (VRB)    12-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   12-Nov  41 1991  61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  38  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  57  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  46  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  47  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  38  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  57  39  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  41  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  47  72  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ041-044-144.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for FLZ058.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock