878
FXUS62 KMLB 101901
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- The potential for locally heavy rainfall exists through this
  weekend as the wet pattern continues coupled with slow-moving
  showers and storms. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts
  to 40-50 mph.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak afternoon heat
  indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central
  Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and
  never swim alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Currently-Tonight... KMLB radar imagery shows general slow moving
west-northwest moving scattered showers and lightning storms
across east central Florida. GOES-19 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures
are currently in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values
generally between 100F-108F degrees. Dew points are in the mid 70s
to around 80 degrees. Analysis charts show the western fringe of
the Bermuda high over local Atlantic waters. The 15Z XMR sounding
indicates MLCAPE at 2,455 J/kg, PWAT at 2.2", and 0-6km shear at
11 kts. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are
forecast to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and
evening as collisions occur between easterly flow, the west coast
sea breeze over western central Florida, as well as outflow from
previous storms. Rain chances are forecast to gradually diminish
around 9PM. Isolated showers and lightning storms cannot be ruled
out from Cape Canaveral southwards. The potential exists for a
couple to a a few strong storms capable of frequent lightning,
wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60
minutes). Above normal (~1-3F+) lows in the low to upper 70s.

Friday-Saturday... The Atlantic ridge is expected to continue to
build over the western Atlantic into the weekend. A more typical
diurnally driven sea breeze pattern is expected compared to the
past several days which will result in a gradual increase in rain
chances at the coast with offshore moving showers and lightning
storms. Scattered to numerous showers (~50-70% chance) and
lightning storms are forecast to develop each day (mainly between
12PM-8PM) across east central Florida as collisions occur between
sea breezes and outflow from previous storms. The greatest
coverage is forecast generally along and near I-4 where the
greatest surface convergence is forecast. Guidance continues to
indicate an environment sufficient for isolated strong storms
with high instability, weak bulk shear, and plentiful moisture.
The strong storm potential will be greatest on Friday with
guidance showing PVA pivoting across east central Florida which
will provide additional lift for strong to marginally severe
storm(s).

The primary hazards for a couple to a few strong storms on Friday
and Saturday are frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts up
to 40-50mph (<5% chance of wind gusts up to 60mph on Friday), and
heavy rainfall (up to 1-3"+ in 60 minutes). Afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values up to 102F-107F are
forecast. Above normal lows (~1-4+ degrees) in the low to upper
70s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk with areas of
Major HeatRisk on Friday and Saturday. A Moderate HeatRisk
affects those sensitive to heat and a Major HeatRisk affects
anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

Sunday-Wednesday... Global models and LREF-clusters are in good
agreement that a mid/upper level high will build over the eastern
CONUS Sunday and into next week. Thus, a continuation of the
diurnally sea breeze showers and lightning storm pattern is
forecast through Monday before onshore flow develops across east
central Florida and strengthens Tuesday into Wednesday. Scattered
to numerous/widespread showers (50-90% chance Sunday reduce to )
and lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and evening.
Global models and the NBM indicate that rain chances are forecast
to decrease into next week as onshore flow becomes established
over east central Florida. Global models continue to show high
instability with weak shear and sufficient moisture during the
forecast period which is conducive for isolated to scattered
strong storms capable of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts,
and heavy rainfall. There is a up to 20-70% chance of a Major
HeatRisk for areas of east central Florida Sunday to Monday with
lower chances on Tuesday (up to 20-50% chance).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Currently-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of showers/lightning storms as the Bermuda high builds
west over the western Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and
evening, as well as tomorrow. Storm motions will vary from onshore
to offshore. The potential exists for isolated strong storms
capable of wind gusts of 34kts or greater. South-southeast winds
at 5-10kts are forecast to veer south-southwest overnight before
backing onshore into the afternoon on Friday. Seas to 1-2ft with
up to 3 ft over the offshore and Gulf Stream waters are forecast.

Saturday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
outside of showers/lightning storms. The western fringe of the
Bermuda high is expected to build west over the western Atlantic
waters into the weekend. A continuation of the diurnally sea
breeze driven shower and lightning storm pattern is expected.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast
each day through Sunday (rain chances decrease to 30% on Monday)
with the greatest potential in the mid morning to afternoon hours.
Storm motions are expected to vary from onshore to offshore. The
potential exists for isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts
of 34kts or greater. Generally, south-southwest winds at 5-10kts
are forecast to back south-southeast into each afternoon. Seas to
1-2ft are forecast (up to 3ft in the offshore Volusia county
waters on Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered showers and storms are already forming along the east
coast sea breeze near the I-95 corridor. This activity will
continue to increase in coverage across the interior this
afternoon, with late day boundary collisions favored near to just
west of the inland I-4 corridor. Have VCTS starting off along the
coast and KSFB, and then expanding to remainder of inland TAF
sites at 19Z. Tempo windows for MVFR cig/vis impacts included for
KDAB/KTIX from 18-20Z and inland from 19-23Z. Also, have a PROB30
group continuing for KMLB from 18-20Z. Isolated strong storms will
be possible, producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
locally heavy downpours. Storms should largely diminish by 01-02Z,
but some lingering areas of rain and isolated storms may still be
possible through late evening.

East-southeast winds increase up to 8-11 knots behind the inland
moving sea breeze, with winds remaining mostly light and somewhat
variable ahead of this boundary. Multiple outflow boundaries and
storms will likely lead to varying wind directions into the
afternoon. Light and variable winds then forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  20  60  10  60
MCO  76  92  76  93 /  20  60  20  70
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  20  50
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  20  50  30  50
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  40  60  30  70
SFB  75  92  76  92 /  20  60  20  70
ORL  76  91  77  92 /  20  60  20  70
FPR  75  90  75  89 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich