238
FXUS62 KMLB 302347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Patchy fog developing late tonight, particularly over the
  interior where it may become dense at times.

- Low chances for showers continue on Monday. By Tuesday, a few
  storms are possible as moisture increases and a front
  approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to
  late week behind the front.

- Boating conditions will deteriorate Monday night into Tuesday
  ahead of the front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Quick update to add mention of patchy fog over much of the
interior and portions of the Treasure Coast overnight. Afternoon
statistical guidance and HREF members have increased the
probabilities for fog along the I-4 corridor after midnight
through sunrise. This seems to be where light winds and near-
saturation occur, just south of a weak boundary over N Fla. While
confidence is rarely high when forecasting fog over the district,
the signal is consistent enough to also add a small area of dense
fog potential mainly near and SW of Greater Orlando.

Also trimmed rain chances at the coast for tonight as onshore
flow has decreased a bit, at least in the near-term.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tonight-Monday...A cold front moving through the southeast U.S. will
eventually stall across to just north of north FL into Monday. A
moderate low level onshore flow will continue across east central FL
and combine with sufficient moisture at or below 850mb to produce
isolated to scattered over the coastal waters. This activity will
continue to push onshore along the coast tonight through early
Monday and then spread inland through Monday afternoon. Rain
chances still remain on the lower end, around 20-30 percent.
Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s, with highs still near to
above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday...Low pressure at the surface will develop near the northern
Gulf coast along the stalled front Monday night and lift NE as a
trough aloft shifts from the central to eastern United States.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will move east-
northeast across the area and offshore ahead of the front during the
daytime Tuesday. Increasing W/SW winds around 30-45 knots from 925-
500mb may allow any storms that develop across areas mainly north of
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast to produce strong wind
gusts, up to 40-55 mph. Instability will be the overall limiting
factor with stronger storm potential, as SBCAPE looks to remain
below 500 J/kg. Rain chances continue to range from around 60-70%
near to NW of I-4 and 40-50% to the south. Into Tuesday night any
convection should shift offshore as front pushes through central FL.

Breezy and warm conditions forecast Tuesday, with highs several
degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
Temperatures will fall as low as the 50s, mainly north of Orlando by
late Tuesday night, with lows in the 60s forecast near to south of
Orlando.

Wednesday-Sunday...High pressure will gradually build in behind the
front to the north of Florida. Northerly flow Wednesday through
Thursday will continue to transport drier/cooler air into central
Florida, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast and
temperatures near to slightly below normal. Highs will be in the 70s
with overnight lows in the 50s most locations. However, temps may
fall as low as the upper 40s northwest of I-4 Wednesday night. Dry
conditions prevail into Friday as winds veer onshore and allow temps
to gradually rise into late week. Highs will range from the upper
70s to low 80s, with lows Friday night in the low to mid 60s.

There remains some forecast uncertainty into next weekend as another
front approaches Florida. The GFS stalls this boundary across north
FL, while the ECMWF moves the boundary through into Saturday night.
Either way rain chances will return to the forecast. Currently have
PoPs rising to 30-50% from Brevard/Osceola counties northward on
Saturday, and 20% across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast,
with rain chances then ranging from 30-40% areawide on Sunday.
Temperatures will continue a warming trend into Saturday, with
highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the region, and if front
is able to push through during the weekend as the ECMWF suggests,
then highs will fall back to more normal values in the 70s on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tonight-Monday...Seas at Buoy 41009 have reached up to 5.6 feet at
times today, which indicates there may be a little more coverage of
the 6 foot seas over the offshore waters. The NBM/WNAWAVE10 have a
better handle on this than the NWPS, with the guidance suggesting
that seas up to 6 feet may linger offshore through early this
evening. Have therefore added small craft exercise caution to the
entire offshore waters with the latest update. Also, increased rain
chances based on latest radar trends and added a slight chance for
thunderstorms across the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast where
instability is a little higher and where we have already seen
some lightning strikes with this activity.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the waters
tonight into Monday as east-northeast winds up to 10-15 knots
continue. Instability decreases over the gulf stream waters tonight,
so lightning potential looks much lower. Seas will range from 3-5
feet overnight tonight through Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...Low pressure will lift northeast across the
southeast U.S. dragging a cold front through the waters Tuesday
night. Boating conditions will deteriorate into Monday night as
onshore flow strengthens to 15-20 knots offshore. Winds then veer to
the S/SW through Tuesday and increase up to 15-25 knots, with seas
building to 4-6 feet as front approaches. Scattered showers and
isolated storms ahead of the front will move through the area
Tuesday, with a few storms having the potential to produce strong
wind gusts and lightning strikes as they shift quickly offshore.

W/NW winds actually decrease some behind the front, but will still
remain up to 15-20 knots offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will
gradually build in behind the front with drier conditions forecast
and winds decreasing below 15 knots through mid to late week. Winds
will be out of the north Wednesday-Thursday and then become
onshore by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- Potential for categorical restrictions to IFR or LIFR has
  increased to a medium chance for late tonight, between 01/08Z
  and 01/13Z.

Some changes with this TAF package as guidance hones in on short-
term trends. A relaxing pressure gradient, seasonably high dew
points, and a weak boundary to our north are likely culprits for
patchy fog and stratus development over the interior (Greater
Orlando area) after midnight. Probabilities of IFR conds at MCO
are now up to around 50% with a 40% chance of LIFR. Coastal
terminals look less likely to see widespread fog development,
though patchy fog is reasonable at typically favored sites such as
TIX, VRB, and FPR.

On Monday, VFR conds return at all sites by mid morning. Will
monitor low chances for showers, esp along the coast by late
morning into the afternoon. NE winds 5-12 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  77  66  80 /  10  20  20  60
MCO  65  80  67  82 /  10  20  10  60
MLB  66  78  68  82 /  20  30  20  50
VRB  66  80  68  84 /  20  30  20  50
LEE  61  79  65  79 /  10  20  20  70
SFB  63  79  67  81 /  10  20  10  60
ORL  64  80  67  81 /  10  20  10  60
FPR  66  80  67  84 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil