346
FXUS62 KMLB 011052
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
652 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- Mostly dry conditions forecast through much of the weekend, with
  a gradual warm-up expected, but temperatures remain below
  normal today into tonight.

- Rain chances return late Sunday into Sunday night and through
  Monday associated with the next cold front.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist at area beaches this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure will persist across the southeast U.S.
and into Florida today, with lighter N/NE surface winds around 5-10
mph forecast across the area. Airmass will remain quite dry, with PW
values around 0.5-0.6 inches, with skies remaining clear to mostly
clear. After a slightly chilly start around daybreak with temps in
the mid 40s-mid 50s, afternoon highs will actually be a tad warmer
than yesterday, but still around 5 degrees below normal in the mid
to upper 70s. Light and variable winds forecast into tonight, with
lows falling into the 50s most areas.

Sunday-Monday...High pressure at the surface lifts N/NE as a cut-off
mid/upper level low approaches and eventually moves through Florida
into Monday. Latest 00Z runs of the GFS/ECMWF in better agreement
showing this feature developing an area of low pressure off the
southeast U.S. coast, which drags a weaker cold front through the
region into Monday. Mostly dry conditions look to prevail through
much of Sunday, but approaching cut-off low aloft and increasing
moisture will lead to isolated to scattered showers late Sunday into
Sunday night and continuing through Monday as front moves through.
Continue to maintain low end rain chances around 20-30 percent
through this time.

Highs will continue a slight warming trend into Sunday, with values
a little closer to normal in the upper 70s/low 80s. Then with the
front, highs fall back to the low to mid 70s near to north of
Orlando and mid to upper 70s south on Monday. Lows will be in the
50s to low 60s each night.

Tuesday-Friday...Cut-off low aloft then shifts east of Florida into
Tuesday, with a ridge extending eastward across the area as it
weakens into mid to late week. Low pressure off the southeast U.S.
coast at the surface will gradually shift farther away from the area
through midweek, but GFS lingers this low a little longer just off
the east coast of Florida Tuesday. Moisture wrapping around this
feature may continue some shower development over the waters that
can push onshore through Wednesday, but still some differences in
the models regarding this. For now have kept forecast mostly dry
through this period due to the uncertainty. Temperatures will
gradually climb through the remainder of the week, with highs back
in the low 80s mid to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Today-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions forecast through the
weekend. High pressure across the southeast U.S. lifts north-
northeast, with winds relatively light around 5-10 knots, generally
out of the N/NE, but directions may be more variable into tonight.
Seas will reside around 2-4 feet today and fall to 2-3 feet Sunday.
Mostly dry conditions forecast through much of the weekend, with
isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly into Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday...Boating conditions are expected to deteriorate
into early next week. Low pressure is forecast to gradually take
form offshore the Georgia/east Florida coast into Sunday night or
early Monday and may slide south-southeast before finally pushing
farther away from the area into midweek. This low will drag a weaker
cold front through the area Monday, with additional isolated to
scattered showers and possibly a storm or two developing. A fresh NW
breeze will develop behind this boundary and it will remain breezy
as winds veer to the N/NE through Tuesday. Wind speed are currently
forecast in the 15-20 knot range, but may be a little stronger,
especially Monday night into Tuesday depending on how close low
pressure is from the east coast of FL. Gradient looks to relax into
Wednesday as low shifts away from the area, with NE winds decreasing
to 10-15 knots. Seas will build in the breezy northerly flow, with
seas 4-6 feet Monday, and increasing to 5-7 feet Tuesday and then
falling to 4-6 feet again Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds this morning will become NE and increase to 5-10 KT by late
morning to early afternoon (around 16/17Z). Winds will then
become light and variable once again Saturday evening (00Z) before
becoming northerly and increasing to around 5KT once again Sunday
around 16/17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  57  77  59 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  76  56  79  60 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  76  59  79  63 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  77  59  80  63 /   0   0  10  30
LEE  75  54  78  57 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  76  56  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  76  57  79  60 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  77  59  80  63 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson