972
FXUS62 KMLB 070600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
100 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- A cold front will stall across central Florida tonight and
  Sunday then press south of the area Monday. Coverage of showers
  and isolated storms will increase with periods of moderate to
  heavy rain.

- Hazardous boating conditions will develop behind the front
  Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns
  at this time. A stronger cold front may swing through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Thru tonight...A cold front is sagging southward across Lake and
Volusia counties this afternoon bringing scattered showers and a
northerly wind shift. This front will stall across central FL
overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to track
eastward extending down into Osceola and Brevard counties this
evening. Then this shallow convection should diminish by
midnight. Have drawn patchy fog across all the area late tonight
and early Sun with the better chance again being across southern
sections.

Sun-Mon...Weak low pressure develops over the northern Gulf Sun
and rides east along the frontal boundary across FL peninsula Sun
night. This low organizes further east of FL and swings the front
cleanly through the area Monday. Coverage of showers and isolated
storms is forecast to increase Sun afternoon across northern
sections, spreading southward to the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee late Sunday into the overnight. Activity then clears
from north to south Monday into Monday afternoon behind the front.
Overall, surface instability looks to remain limited through the
period. Confidence in lightning remains low, although the best
chances look to be across the south late Sunday afternoon where
less cloud cover should allow for better surface heating. Several
rounds of rain, heavy at times are possible, esp across northern
sections near the stalled front. Rainfall averages of 1-2"
possible through Monday from Orlando/Cape northward, with
localized higher totals up to 4" cannot be ruled out.

On Sun, max temps will range from the low to mid 70s across
Volusia county to the mid 80s Okeechobee/Treasure coast.
Noticeably cooler for most on Monday behind the front with most
areas in the low to mid 70s (upper 70s Martin).

Tue-Sat...High pressure builds across the southeast and into
central Florida Tuesday, and conditions remain mostly dry through
at least Thu. The next cold front is forecast to reach the area
Fri-Sat timeframe and sufficient moisture return may produce
isolated to scattered showers on one of those days, depending on
frontal timing. Highs hold near seasonal into mid week, mostly in
the low to mid 70s. Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s
Friday ahead of that next front, then a more significant cool down
is possible next weekend. Lows mostly in the upper 40s and 50s
each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A weak cold front sagging south across the northern waters this
afternoon will become nearly stationary across central FL and the
adjacent Atlantic tonight and Sunday. The front is forecast to
surge south of the waters Monday as north winds increase which
will bring deteriorating boating conditions. Rain and storm
chances increase Sun and Sun night.

North winds behind the front this evening 15-20 knots require a
Caution headline for nearshore Volusia. Winds decrease and veer NE
overnight. Winds become more variable Sunday in proximity to the
front though a more uniform S/SW flow is forecast as the front may
temporarily lift back to the north. Winds increase out of the
NW-N around 20 kts behind the front on Monday then veer NE Tue and
decrease. A light offshore flow is forecast Wed-Thu. Seas 4-5 FT
Volusia waters tonight subsiding to 3 FT Sunday. Seas become
poor to hazardous Monday into Tue esp over the Gulf Stream,
building 6-8 ft with 4-6 FT nearshore. Seas slowly subside Tue
night-Wed falling below 5 FT offshore Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR/IFR CIGs continue across east central Florida overnight,
though SH near LEE and DAB appear to have actually helped improve
CIGs there. Regardless, similar conditions are forecast to
continue through at least 14Z across the area. -SHRA also extends
north and west of a line from ISM to near TIX. These showers look
to persist through sunrise, before the stalled front lifts
northward this morning, taking the SH with it.

The front is then expected to push southward again this afternoon
and into the overnight hours, with embedded SH and TS. VCTS
begins near LEE/DAB, then spreads southward through 1Z. Have
included prevailing -TSRA for the boundary itself, but overall TS
chances are low. In fact, have only a SHRA mention for the
Treasure Coast, due to the front moving into that area after 0Z
and weakening. MVFR/IFR CIGs are once again forecast behind the
front, with VCSH lingering into the overnight hours. Southerly
winds today veering northerly into this evening at around 10-12
kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  61  71  53 /  70  80  20   0
MCO  81  66  74  55 /  60  70  40   0
MLB  82  64  75  59 /  40  60  50   0
VRB  83  64  77  60 /  40  60  60   0
LEE  76  62  72  49 /  60  80  30   0
SFB  78  64  73  53 /  60  80  30   0
ORL  79  65  73  54 /  60  70  40   0
FPR  84  65  78  60 /  30  50  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy