Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260139
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through
Wednesday. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zeta will move up
the Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across
the area early Friday. High pressure will build in over the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Basically have pcpn ending during the mid to late evening hours.
Now the threat will be low stratus and/or fog. Northerly Winds
will remain active overnight thru Mon and should aid in the
prevention of ground based fog. However, the low levels will
remain moist and thus supporting the threat for widespread
stratus below 1k ft. Areal fog coverage will be limited to
Patchy at this time, and as mentioned earlier, the main threat
overnight into mid to late daytime mon will be the low stratus.
Very little tweaking needed for the fcst temps overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect showers to linger over the area through about 7 PM. Residual
low level moisture will likely result in abundant low clouds
tonight.  Fair weather with less clouds is expected Monday and
Monday night as weak high pressure settles into the area.  Lows
tonight will fall to the mid 50s to around 60 with lows Monday night
expected to bottom in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  Highs Monday will
reach the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid/upper ridging will hold on off the southeast US coast through
Wednesday. By Wednesday night, this ridge will transition eastward
as Tropical Cyclone Zeta opens up and lifts across AL and northern
GA. Weak surface high pressure over eastern NC will produce a light
northeast breeze Tuesday, veering to the south and increasing
Wednesday night with warm FROPA as Zeta remnants approach the
southern Appalachians. Will also see an increase in shower potential
from south to north beginning Wednesday and continuing Wednesday
night, although activity should be scattered at most.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep southwest flow will result in temps 5-7 degrees above climo on
Thursday with most areas reaching around 80. Closed 500 mb low will
traverse TN Thursday night, and it, along with its surface
reflection will move rapidly off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday,
and drag a cold front across the forecast area. Rain chances
will peak Thursday night into Friday morning, then fall off
rapidly Friday afternoon based on GFS/ECMWF consensus. High
pressure will build in for the weekend, with a surface wedge
across the interior Carolinas and a weak surface trough just
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The last of the pcpn across coastal NC is quickly dissipating
and should not be a concern from here on out. However, plenty of
trapped low level moisture will result in low stratus, initially
MVFR threshold, that will lower to IFR/LIFR thresholds prior to
midnight and last through late daytime Mon morning. Clouds will
slowly lift to MVFR and high thresholds from midday onward, as
dry air finally infiltrates the lower levels. Winds generally
N-NE at 5 to 10 kt tonight and 6 to 12 kt during daylight Mon.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR Mon through Wed with
possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from ground
fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri, expect Zeta remnants
to push across the Carolinas followed by a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Monday...Expect N to NE winds of 15 KT or less
with seas of 2 to 3 FT.

Monday through Friday...Weak high pressure over eastern NC will
yield northeast flow across the waters, however the gradient
will be weak, with wind speeds on the order of 10 kt or less.
Direction will veer to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday,
with speeds on the order of 10-15 kts. The gradient will
strengthen Wednesday night and Thursday as the remnants of TC
Zeta move up the southern Appalachians, and winds will swing to
the south and increase to 20 kts. Will also see potential for
scattered showers increasing late Wednesday and Wednesday night,
although the most significant rains will remain well inland.
Seas will start off around 2 ft Tuesday, building to 3 ft
Wednesday, and to 5-6 ft by Thursday afternoon in strong SW
flow. Small craft advisory seas are expected to persist into
Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/CRM/31


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