Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 190443
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1243 AM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will usher drier and noticeably cooler
air into the Carolinas through early Monday with below normal
temperatures expected. A warming trend will commence into
midweek, peaking Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
After the past week of heat and storms, cooler and dry weather in
store through Sunday. CAA strengthens tonight as NNW flow
increases around trough over the northeast. Tonight will feel
more like late spring with low temps around 60 degrees and a
light breeze as a LLJ moves across. Beautiful summer weather in
store for Sunday. High temps in the mid 80s. Dewpoints will be
decreasing through the night into tomorrow, and with very dry
air just above the surface may see dewpoints in the 30s mix down
to the surface inland Sunday afternoon. With RHs in the 20s and
slightly breezy north winds, Sunday will be quite a nice day
for outdoor activities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather to start the week as high pressure builds down from
the north with deep northerly flow. Pcp water will be down less
than a half inch with a very dry column, although soundings do
show some mid to high clouds spilling over the top of mid to
upper ridge to west, streaming from the north into the Carolinas on
Mon. Overall a quiet period with a cool start to the morning and
low humidity, but warm in the sun. Low temps early Mon morning
will be in the mid 50s to near 60 close to the coast and a few
degrees higher Mon night as air mass begins to modify. Record
lows for Sun night/early Mon 6/20 at FLO: 58 set in 1965; LBT
55 in 1965; ILM 54 in 1879 and CRE 59 in 1953. High temps on
Sunday will be in the mid 80s to close to 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High Amplitude ridge running up the Mississippi Valley early
Tues will flatten and spread out through midweek continuing to
extend into the Carolinas from the west. Low pressure riding
around the periphery of the ridge may provide some clouds
running down into the area, but not counting on any pcp until at
least Thurs or Fri as moisture increases with dewpoints back up
into the mid 60s to near 70 and ridge possibly weakens enough
as front nears the area. As heights rise into midweek with temps
rising back above normal and dewpoints creeping up, may see
heat indices reach above 100 in places.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. North winds maintain near 10 knots tonight and 10-15 knots
during the day on Saturday.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Predominantly southwest winds currently across
local coastal waters will turn northeasterly this evening as
offshore front moves off to the east. Northeast flow strengthens
overnight with tight gradient around building high pressure to the
northwest and a LLJ moving across the area. NE winds sustained 15-20
kts between midnight and morning. Gusts around 25 kts forecasted for
our SC coastal waters, particularly south of Murrells Inlet, but
forecasted duration and coverage doesn`t warrant a SCA. Tomorrow,
northeast winds gradually weaken during the day as high pressure
continues to build across the area. Seas will be increasing into
overnight hours to 3-4 ft by 6z as NE wind wave quickly builds and
replaces diminishing SW wave. 3-4 ft seas Sunday morning will lower
during the day as NE winds weaken.

Sunday night through Thursday:
N to NE winds will come around to the NE to E through Mon night
but will remain 10 kts or less for the most part with seas
diminishing down below 3 ft. Winds will become more variable as
high migrates closer overhead through Mon. As high pressure
shifts off the coast Tues into midweek, a southerly return flow
will develop up to 10 to 15 kts. A longer period swell up to 8
seconds should dominate as winds are lighter Mon into Tues, but
the increasing southerly swell will drive seas up closer to 3 to
4 ft by Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/VAO


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