Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 141724
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1224 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather will prevail as high pressure builds in
today and into the weekend. A weak disturbance will move across
the Southeast coast late Sunday. A warming trend begin Sunday and
lasts through Tuesday. The next storm system will affect the
area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
An earlier update this morning added a couple hours of
sprinkles/light showers along the Grand Strand coast and as far
north as Southport. Radar shows these are almost gone, but the
Southport AWOS is still seeing light rain falling there. Dense
mid and high level clouds should clear off the coast no later
than early this afternoon with clearing skies expected the
remainder of the day. I`ve increased wind speeds both onshore
and offshore with this update based on observations and models.
No significant changes were needed to forecast temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure brings cool north to northeast winds over the next 36
hours with mainly clear skies and dry weather.  Afternoon high
temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s, which is a near
to slightly below average for this time of year.  Maybe more
impressively, this is widespread 15 to 25 degrees colder than
yesterday, with a few locations closer to 30 degrees colder than
high temperatures Thursday afternoon. Overnight low
temperatures tonight and again Saturday night will reach near to
below freezing, which could create potential issues for outdoor
plants that have bloomed early due to unseasonably warm heat
this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level pattern will transition to more of a zonal or
even southwest configuration through the period. At the surface
high pressure will be drifting offshore with a coastal trough
developing Sunday. There appears to be a shortwave that enhances
this feature as well so chance pops mainly across southern
zones remain in the forecast. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side as the surface high is in no hurry. Expect middle 30s
or so Sunday morning with afternoon highs generally a notch
below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period looks somewhat unsettled as a west to
southwest flow laden with shortwaves should be in place. The
highest pops occur Tuesday and again late Wednesday into
Thursday with the respective systems. The latter system looks a
bit more impressive at this point in time. Regarding
temperatures, a warmup is in store with highs Tuesday and
Wednesday approaching or even above the 70 degree mark. Another
intrusion of arctic air is possible very late in the period into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper cloud deck is moving offshore at this time. Skies are
clearing across the CWA. VFR dominates throughout this
beautiful, chilly day.

Extended Outlook...High pressure with mainly VFR conditions expected
through the weekend. Next chance for flight restrictions by the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory continues as wind gusts offshore up to 30 kts
and waves close to 6 feet continue.  Offshore conditions are
expected to gradually improve under high pressure Saturday
afternoon.

Modest wind fields will be in place for the first couple
of days of the short and long term periods. A general northeast
direction with speeds around ten knots or so for Sunday and Monday.
A more pronounced southwest flow of eventually 15-20 knots will
develop Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A northerly component to the
winds will develop mid week and may increase to as much as 20-25
knots at times. Small craft criteria seas may develop Tuesday and
even moreso Thursday with the higher wind speeds. Preceding this
expect 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MCK/SHK



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