Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021653
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1253 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will begin to increase as high pressure moves farther
offshore. Shower chances may increase Monday, then again
Wednesday as a cold front approaches and stalls nearby
Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning.
Dewpoints are running higher than previous forecasts currently,
but there`s still a period from late this morning through early
afternoon where inland dewpoints could mix down into the upper
40s for a few hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level high pressure system and associated southerly flow aloft
will bring warmer temperatures today than 24 hours ago in the upper
70s near the coast and into the mid 80s inland. Cloud cover will
increase later today as a warm front approaches from the south.
Chances for light rain increase as the front moves into the region
by sunrise Monday morning.  As instability increases ahead of an
incoming trough base, thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon
with brief downpours of rain, especially along the I-95 corridor.
Rain amounts inland could reach 0.25", with lesser amounts around
0.10" near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave will continue to push north of the area of Monday night
and shower chances will move with it. Southerly flow at the surface
will keep boundary layer moisture high as overnight lows struggle to
fall below 70. Another shortwave feature will approach the area on
Tuesday as an upper trough digs southward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. Thunderstorm chances increase in the late afternoon to
early evening with the best chance on Tuesday evening. Forcing
remains relatively weak with this system, so not expecting
widespread coverage, but isolated storms may develop with the best
chance remaining inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak cold front moves through the area on Wednesday, bringing
another chance of rain. Upper-level forcing continues to be on the
weak side as the upper-trough lifts on Wednesday afternoon
subsequent with the arrival of the surface boundary. Have kept a
chance of rain in the forecast with a few thunderstorms possible
despite the weak instability. Another chance of rain develops on
Thursday with yet another approaching trough. Moisture ahead of this
system will be limited, so rain chances are limited to a slight
chance despite slightly better forcing. This system pushes offshore
on Friday and should usher in cooler and drier air for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As center of high pressure slides farther offshore, moisture
will be increasing through the column in an increasing southerly
return flow. Light SSW winds through the TAF period 5 to 10 kt
will spike up at coastal terminals in aftn seabreeze. Mid to
high clouds will increase and thicken into this aftn with some
cu development this aftn. After 06z, increasing chance of pcp
and MVFR ceilings, mainly at inland TAFs of FLO and LBT as mid
to upper level disturbance rides across the Carolinas.

Extended Outlook...Increasing clouds and moisture with more
unstable atmosphere Monday through early Wednesday will
increase potential for MVFR/IFR conditions, especially late Tues
into early Wed as cold front crosses the Carolinas. Possible
MVFR conditions again Thurs into Fri.


&&

.MARINE...
Today through Monday...
High pressure continues to move further offshore over the next
36 hours with seas between 1 and 2 feet around 6 seconds and
southerly winds at or around 10 kts. An approaching warm front
will bring increasingly unstable conditions over the waters
Monday with chances for thunderstorms, including locally higher
winds and waves. Seas heading into Monday afternoon could
increase to 3 to 4 feet with SW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts as
high as 25 kts. While these values are below critical
thresholds for a small craft advisory issuance, inexperienced
mariners and smaller water craft could encounter some hazardous
conditions at times, especially in and around any developing
thunderstorms.

Monday through Thursday...
High pressure offshore will maintain southerly flow across the
coastal waters through Wednesday, varying in intensity from 10-20
knots with a few gusts up to 24 knots. Seas generally 3-5 feet as
the prolonged fetch leads to building seas throughout the period. On
Wednesday evening, a cold front will push through the area with
winds becoming offshore Wednesday night and northerly by Thursday
morning. Another system will approach the area on Thursday, bringing
light and variable winds that will eventually become SW later in the
day ahead of the approaching front. Rain and thunderstorm chances
continue for Wednesday with the passing front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Last month was the driest April on record in Florence, SC, and was
unusually dry elsewhere. With the exception of moist, unstable air
brought in ahead of fronts on April 10, 15, and 25, dry and very
stable air covered the area most of the month.

                      April Rainfall  Departure
Wilmington, NC...........  0.74         -2.08    10th driest of 150 years
Lumberton, NC............  0.85         -1.97    8th driest of 118 years
Florence, SC.............  0.15         -2.47    All-time driest of 73 years
North Myrtle Beach, SC...  1.30         -1.66    19th driest of 65 years

As a result of the growing rainfall deficit, most of eastern North and
South Carolina was placed into "D0 Abnormally Dry" classification in
the U.S. Drought Monitor last week.

Temperatures ran a half to one degree above normal during April. The
final spring freeze occurred on April 3 at all four of our climate
stations: Wilmington, Lumberton, Florence, and North Myrtle Beach.
This was near normal in Lumberton, but about two weeks late elsewhere.

Also note, we will begin to use the new 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals
on Tuesday, May 4. Our webpage will have the new daily, monthly,
and annual normals available by late morning on May 4.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...MCK/21
CLIMATE...


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