Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 011653
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1155 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue today before a cold
front brings rain later today followed by cooler weather for
Tuesday. Low pressure moving out of the Gulf of Mexico will
lead to more rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure on
Thursday will be followed by another chance of rain next
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Marine dense fog advisory has expired.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low/Mid-level s/w trof will help push the stalled front to our
north, SE-ward and off the Carolina Coasts during late this
aftn. Tapping of moisture sources is limited given westerly
WSW-W flow aloft ahead of the front and will therefore  Models
actually scour some of this moisture by the time it fully
reaches the ILM CWA. Will have to rely on the moisture tagging
along the front itself for a short window shower chances.
Progged tstorm parameters not very conducive and therefore will
continue to mention just showers for pcpn type. Highs today will
be realized this morning thru early aftn, followed by slowly
falling temps due to cloudiness and pcpn and eventually the CFP.
POP chances should drop off early this evening with low and mid
level clouds screening out...with a solid bkn-ovc deck of ci/cs
slated for Tue. Models are somewhat different with the timing
and the eventual return of moisture from the south associated
with the stalled front returning northward. Have included late
aftn low chance pcpn for the southernmost zones. Tonights,
stayed a few degrees above consensus guidance. For max temps
Tue, started with consensus then added a degree or 2 hier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift farther off the NC coast as low
pressure lifts up from the Gulf Coast Tues night into Wed.
Moisture through the column will increase becoming saturated by
daybreak Wed with rain possibly moderate to heavy, especially
along the SC coast as shortwave rides through the area Wed
enhancing lift. Overall, expect a cool and rainy day on Wed with
some spots receiving up near 2 inches of rainfall and temps in
the 50s. This will help to aggravate river flooding across the
area through mid to late week.

This system will move off to the east Wed evening with skies
clearing overnight as high pressure extends down from the Upper
midwest. Temps will be around normal Wed night into Thurs with
overnight lows close to 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure with light winds and plenty of sunshine on Thurs
will bring temps into the mid 60s most places. Fairly deep mid
to upper trough running down the east coast will shift off the
coast Thurs night into Fri with a deep cool NW flow bringing
cooler air into the Carolinas. Temps will run a few degrees
below normal, with mid 30s Thurs night and temps below 60 most
places Fri into the weekend. Latest models drive a cutoff low
around the base of the trough following along the Gulf coast
into the weekend. Most of the associated weather with this low
should remain south of local forecast area, but ECMWF shows
better chc of clouds and rain spreading farther north into our
area over the weekend. For now, will include some clouds, but not
going more than slight chc for pcp, mainly along the coast.
Overall, for now, expect a drier and cooler weekend with
overnight lows Sat night getting down near freezing and daytime
highs remaining in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front pushing to the coast with a rather dramatic change in
temperature and winds. Look for northwest flow this afternoon with
showers exiting the coast around 20Z. A VFR stratocu ceiling is
expected through much of the TAF period with much cooler temps.

Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR late Tue night thru Wed due
to the passage of low pressure. VFR to dominate late Wed night thru
Fri due to Canadian high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
Sfc pg to further tighten ahead of the cold front this morning
which should bring winds sustained at a solid SSW-SW 15 to 20 kt
with 25 to 30 kt gusts possible. Look for winds to veer in
during during the CFP and initially at SCA threshold speeds.
Winds may temporarily drop below SCA thresholds after FROPA.
Models indicate a secondary surge late tonight that should
bring marginal SCA conditions thru daybreak Tue before
diminishing-some. Seas will peak at 4 to 7 ft this aftn, highest
off Cape Fear then drop back to 3 to 6 ft tonight and below
thresholds early Tue. Short period wind driven waves at 3 to 6
seconds will dominate the seas this period. An underlying small
ESE swell will remain present. Sea fog will become patchy in
nature after daybreak as winds illustrate a more westerly
component, helping to keep it away from the mainland.

Tuesday night through Friday...
High pressure will weaken and shift farther off the coast of NC
Tues evening as low pressure system lifts up from the the Gulf
Coast. This will produce an increasing onshore easterly flow
into Wed as low skirts by near or just south of local waters. As
the low moves farther off to the east through Wed, winds will
back to the north and initially increase into early Wed evening,
but will decrease Wed night into Thurs as gradient relaxes as
high pressure extends down from the Upper Midwest. Overall,
winds and seas will start out lower Tues night but will spike up
with a brief SCA possible as low moves by through late Wed.
Northerly winds will diminish Thurs, remaining light Fri with
seas dropping down to 2 to 4 ft on Thurs with a further decrease
through Fri. Winds and seas should increase into the weekend as
low pressure develops to our south.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/RGZ



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