Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 171350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018


Near repeat of Wed WX pattern this aftn. The GOMex low has lifted
into the Deep South and has weakened into a broad H100-H70 cyclonic
circulation. This feature is will interacting with the Bermuda Ridge
axis over the FL Straits/Nrn Bahamas to maintain a brisk S/SW acrs
the FL peninsula. Moist/unstable airmass overhead and upstream with
PWat values btwn 2.00"-2.25", H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 80-90pct,
and H85-H70 lapse rates btwn 5.5-6.0C/KM.

Mrng RAOBs once again show no sig inversions outside of the H100-H95
lyr, suggesting that free convection will dvlp shortly aft the
sfc/low lvl inversions burn off. An extensive mid/upr lvl cloud deck
may slow sfc heating enough to delay the initial onset of precip,
but the deep S/SW flow and sfc dewpoints in the M70s will provide
sufficient heating and instability to allow convective temps in the
L/M80s to be reached before noon, with wdsprd shras/sct tsras dvlpg
by midday/early aftn.

The entire FL peninsula remains on the ascending flank of the low
over the Deep South, while RAP40 analysis shows strong positive mid
lvl omega/upr lvl divergence values streaming up the south
peninsula. Furthermore, a noteworthy H85-H50 vort max directly
upstream over the Keys/wrn Cuba. S/SW flow thru the H100-H70 lyr
will allow the west coast seabreeze to dominate, with the mean H85-
H50 steering flow concentrating activity over the eastern peninsula
by late aftn, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet/Lake-K. Enhanced storm
potential along and east of the FL Turnpike where storms interact
with the east coast sea breeze. Sct shras/tsras lingering thru

Mrng fcst package of 70/80 PoPs is on target...updates to refresh


.AVIATION...Thru 18/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 17/18Z..S/SW 7-11KTS. Btwn 17/18Z-17/21Z...coastal
sites S of KTIX bcmg S/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 18/00Z-18/03Z...bcmg S/SE 3-

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 17/16Z...lcl IFR cigs btwn FL005-009...
prevailing cigs AOA FL120...S of KISM-KTIX slgt chc MVFR shras. Btwn
17/16Z-17/19Z...cigs btwn FL040-060 nmrs MVFR shras/sct IFR tsras.
Btwn 17/20Z-17/
/slgt chc LIFR +tsra with sfc G35KTS. Btwn 18/00Z-18/02Z...chc MVFR
shra/IFR tsras. Btwn 18/02Z-18/06Z...slgt chc MVFR shras.


Weak low pres system over the Deep South will combine with the
Bermuda ridge axis over the Nrn Bahamas/FL Straits to generate a
gentle to moderate S/SW breeze over the lcl Atlc...S/SE near the
coast by mid aftn as the east coast sea breeze dvlps. Seas 2-4FT
nearshore and 3-5FT offshore in an easterly background swell.
Prolonged southerly fetch will place much of the Treasure Coast
waters in the Bahama shadow, resulting in rough short pd seas AOB
5sec. Wdsprd shras/tsras with shras/tsra moving offshore in the late
aftn/early evng.





Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX.......Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.