Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170815
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
415 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...High Coverage of Afternoon Storms is On Tap Yet Again...

Current...The erstwhile northeast GOMEX surface low has broadened
further and is now straddling the NE Gulf Coast. Multi-channel water
vapor imagery and RAP analysis fields show the mid-upper level low
has degenerated into a broad open trough with multiple vort packets
at various levels rotating around it. Local doppler radars show
spotty showers have been redeveloping in the sultry air mass (PWATs
of 1.8"- 1.9") which remains in place over the peninsula.

Today-tonight...Well-advertised synoptic setup points to yet another
active day across ECFL. In fact, the mid and upper level profile
suggests slightly more favorable dynamics compared to Wednesday.
Deep layer S-SSW flow continues with progged PWATs at or near 2.0"
this afternoon. H25 flow looks slightly more divergent as winds are
slightly more backed. In addition, there is a well-defined H50 vort
extending from western Cuba to the Florida Straits that will lift
quickly NNE through the southern and central peninsula by this
afternoon, adding to the forced ascent.

Expect diurnal convection to to initiate fairly quickly by late
morning/early afternoon along sea and lake breeze boundaries once
the convective temp is reached. Activity is more likely to become
outflow-driven during the afternoon (as suggested by high-res meso
model guidance), given the widespread coverage expected. Lingering
forced ascent should keep residual convection going several hours
post-sunset, before becoming more spotty later tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall totals are expected once again, with gusty winds/
frequent lightning in a few of the storms again today. Progged max
temps are a few degrees lower (L-M80s) compared to yesterday, with
mins a couple degrees either side of 70F.

Friday...A deep mid to upper level trough will extend into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico with low level SSW winds in the morning
becoming S/SE into the afternoon. A swath of deeper moisture on the
east side of the trough will support another day with numerous
showers and scattered storms. Will have rain chances in the 60-70
percent range with locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches
with stronger storms. High temps will reach the mid 80s along the
coast and the upper 80s across the interior.

Saturday-Sunday...The mid level trough across the southeast states
Saturday will lift northeast through the weekend as the mid level
ridge east of the state begins to nudge closer. Low level flow will
strengthen some out of the southeast Saturday with deep moisture
continuing to support numerous showers and storms that will focus
inland in the afternoon. Will have rain chances in the 60-70 percent
range Sat. On Sunday...low level southeast flow will continue with
deeper moisture beginning to work slowly westward. Will have rain
chances lower for the Treasure coast where the east coast sea breeze
will push inland but keep rain chances around 60 percent for nrn
sections and the interior. Locally heavy rainfall will still be a
concern into the weekend with the recent heavy rainfall across
portions of east central Florida this week. Highs will range from
the mid 80s coast to upper 80s well inland Saturday and in the mid
80s Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...The low level Atlantic ridge axis will move
northward into mid week with a period of low level southeast flow
around the ridge expected. Moisture levels will continue to support
mainly diurnal showers and storms along the inland moving east coast
sea breeze with rain chances in the scattered range each day. Should
see morning morning sun into next week before afternoon cloudiness
increases with daily convection. Highs will be near normal in the
mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...Another active afternoon expected. VFR through 14-15Z
giving way to CIGs BK025-035/BKN050-060 with widespread MVFR-IFR
VSBYS in showers and storms. Activity initiates around 16-17Z with
highest coverage once again in the 18Z-24Z time frame areawide,
with scattered convection tapering off in coverage after 02-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Friday...Southerly flow at 10-15 knots will veer to
the southeast in the afternoon with seas 3-4 ft near shore and up to
5 feet offshore. Numerous showers/scattered storms are expected over
the local Atlantic waters.

Saturday-Monday...The Atlantic ridge will elongate north of the
waters through the weekend with winds becoming southeast up to 15
knots offshore. Seas generally in the 3-4 ft range near shore and up
to 4-6 ft well offshore. Numerous showers and storms Saturday will
become scattered across the waters into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  70  85  70 /  80  50  60  40
MCO  85  70  88  71 /  80  50  70  40
MLB  84  71  85  72 /  80  50  70  40
VRB  84  71  86  72 /  80  50  70  50
LEE  85  71  88  71 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  85  70  88  71 /  80  50  70  40
ORL  84  71  88  71 /  80  50  70  40
FPR  84  71  86  72 /  80  50  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Volkmer


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