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000
FXUS62 KMLB 080758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic
currently across central Florida will shift slowly southward through
tonight. This will result in low level S/SW winds that will continue
to gradually increase moisture and rain chances across the region.
This flow will also lead to a slightly slower development of the
east coast sea breeze than the past several days. However, it will
remain weak enough for this boundary to move inland through the
afternoon. This will allow highs to be a tad warmer than yesterday,
reaching the low 90s along the coast, and as high as the mid 90s
over the interior.

Drier air in the mid levels will hold on a little longer over
northern portions of east central Florida today, which may help
limit overall convective coverage across this area. Highest rain
chances up to 40-50 percent will exist across the interior, south of
Orlando where greater moisture and best potential for boundary
collisions will coexist. A weak W/SW steering flow may then allow
convection to shift back toward the coast through late afternoon and
sunset. Drier air aloft and relatively cool temps aloft around -7 to
-8C at 500mb may allow a few storms to become strong, producing
frequent lightning and strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall leading to nuisance minor flooding will also
be a concern due to slower storm motion.

Thursday-Tuesday...Surface to 700 mb ridge will remain south of
the area through late week as a frontal trough pushes to the
eastern seaboard. The ridge is forecast to nudge back north
towards central Florida early next week as the trough weakens.
While the resulting south/southwest low level flow is generally
conducive for an increased coverage of afternoon/evening storms
across east central Florida, moisture is not forecast to be
consistently above normal.

The models show some interaction between upper level low moving
across the Florida Straits/southeast Gulf of Mexico and ridge to the
north into late week. As a result, some subsidence and dry
pockets are forecast to occasionally affect the area. The models
have shown run-to-run differences in PoPs so have settled with
30-40% values Thu-Fri. Over the weekend, the GFS shows a trough
digging into the southeast states and weakening the ridge, which
should allow for an overall moisture increase and support PoPs at
or above 50% by Sunday. The Atlantic ridge is forecast to build
back into the area Mon-Tue, which should start to lower deep
moisture again.

Max temps will be in the lower 90s, but with a westerly component
to the low level flow, we would normally expect some mid 90s too
until rain chances start to increase by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the morning. Low level
S/SW flow will continue to lead to a slight increase in moisture and
afternoon shower/storm development today. Showers and isolated
storms will begin to develop along the east coast sea breeze into
early afternoon, with convective coverage increasing across the
interior, especially south of Orlando through mid to late afternoon.
Weak W/SW steering flow may allow convection that forms over the
interior to shift back toward the coast through sunset. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this SHRA/TSRA
activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Ridge axis across the area this morning, will shift
south of Lake Okeechobee by tonight. S/SW winds around 5-10 knots
this morning, will become E/SE near the coast around 10 knots this
afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then
gradually veer back to the S/SW into tonight, with speeds up to 10-
15 knots north of the Cape. Seas will reside around 2 feet over much
of the waters.

A weak W/SW steering flow may allow a few storms to push just
offshore today. This will mainly be possible during the early
afternoon and later in the day/toward sunset from convection that
develops over the interior and can push back toward the coast.

Thursday-Sunday...Axis of Atlantic high pressure ridge will settle
into south Florida Thu and remain quasi-stationary through the
weekend.  This will generate a mostly south/southwest gradient wind.
Speeds look to be 10 knots or less except for evening diurnal
increases to 10-15 knots mainly in the north. Seas should continue 2-
3 feet. A surface to mid level mean wind from the west/southwest
will push isolated to scattered storms from the mainland across
the coast and into the nearshore Atlantic each afternoon/evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The St Johns River is in a slow fall. Rain chances are forecast to
return to closer to normal values through the remainder of the week
and upcoming weekend. The Saint Johns River at Astor remains at
Minor Flood Stage and is expected to remain nearly steady or fall
slightly over the next several days. Overall river levels elsewhere
are forecast to remain within Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  94  76  94  77 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  30  20
VRB  92  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  94  76  93  77 /  30  20  20  10
SFB  94  76  95  77 /  30  20  30  10
ORL  94  76  94  77 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  91  73  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Lascody