Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250513
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
113 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta will increase
rain chances today and tonight. Dry weather will move into the
area on Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend
with temps above normal through Monday. A series of cold frontal
passages will bring unsettled weather early next week before
dry weather and below normal temps build into the area
beginning Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the current forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Beta, now across east-central MS early this
afternoon, will continue to spread moisture into the Carolinas
through the near term period as it moves toward the northeast.
Isentropic lift will help bring initial areas of rainfall to the
area late tonight into Friday morning. UVVs are projected to
drastically increase during Friday into the evening given favorable
positioning of the H3 jet. As a result, POPs will range from likely
to categorical for much of the forecast area Friday afternoon into
the evening. QPF is expected to average 1 to 1.5 most locations,
while areas generally along/west of I-95 could average 2 inches or
more. Locally heavy rainfall could enhance the flood risk especially
when considering antecedent conditions. Portions of the Pee Dee have
received over 300% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks. Thus
part of the forecast area, especially the I-95 corridor, will need
to be monitored for a FFA. Additionally, the Marginal Risk from SPC
continues to highlight all of the forecast area in the Day 2
Outlook. A few of the thunderstorms may become organized enough to
produce localized wind damage or an isolated tornado. This threat
will increase during the day and should be at its greatest Friday
afternoon through the evening. Lastly, high astronomical tides will
continue to lead to minor coastal flooding at downtown ILM for the
high tide this afternoon and again with high tide Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
What`s left of Beta will approach the area as a weak mid-level
disturbance on Friday night into early Saturday. Lingering showers
and low-level moisture will clear our from west to east on Saturday
morning. Most of the area will become dry by early afternoon with
decreasing coverage of low-level clouds yielding what will be a
warm, humid, but mostly sunny afternoon. On Sunday, a warm front to
the south over the panhandle of FL will begin to move northward
bringing low-level moisture into the southern portions of the area
associated with a weak disturbance over NW AL and western TN. Will
begin to see an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon, mainly in portions of central and southern SC as an
upper-level ridge and mid-level dry air competes with developing
showers. Overnight Sunday, the warm front will push further
northward into NC allowing deep-layer moistening of the column. Will
see shower chances increase from south to north overnight as a
result with overnight lows remaining around 70 degrees due to the
increasing dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During the day on Monday, a cold front over the southern
Appalachians will lead to an increase in southerly flow and
continued moisture advection. Will maintain a chance of showers and
an isolated thunderstorm as the front approaches during the
afternoon and early evening (best chance along the coast).
Overnight, the cold front will push through the area with few
noticeable changes in the air mass. In fact, we are likely to see
the southerly flow increase along with available moisture. This is
due to a much stronger cold front following over the central US.
Shower chances increase again on Tuesday. Front continues to trek
eastward on Tuesday evening as precip and available moisture
diminishing from west to east. Behind the front, much cooler and
drier air will persist in the presence of a deep upper-level trough
centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley. Below-normal
temperatures and dry weather is expected after Wednesday (highs in
the low 70s and overnight lows hovering around 50 in most areas).
Currently, models indicate that this pattern could continue through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings have overspread the area in advance of low pressure
advancing eastward from the Deep South. Light patchy sprinkles
have already developed inland falling from ceilings near 8000
feet AGL. Showers will become heavier and more widespread inland
late this afternoon, with substantial precipitation rates
likely not developing along the coast until after 00z,
accompanied by MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in rain
and fog may develop between 06Z Saturday through 13-15Z
Saturday morning. MVFR to IFR visibility in radiational fog
could develop Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Friday night... Weak high pressure will remain
centered off the Southeast U.S. coast through tonight while the
remnants of Beta lift toward the northeast from east-central MS.
As a result, light flow will give way to increasing south-
southeasterly winds during Friday and Friday night. Seas will
also build in response to the developing fetch and at times will
be enhanced by scattered to numerous areas of convection,
especially Friday night.

Saturday through Wednesday... Southerly flow will continue this
weekend with 2-4 wind waves dominating the spectrum through the
weekend. On Monday, a cold front approaching the Carolinas will
compress the pressure gradient as southerly winds increase to 10-15
knots. Waves increase to 3-5 feet with this brief surge. By Tuesday
morning, the weakening front will push offshore. Very little change
in the pattern behind the front due to a stronger cold front
following in its wake. Winds increase to around 15 knots and seas to
4-5 feet on Tuesday night ahead of the following front. During the
day on Wednesday, winds veer, becoming westerly and NW on Wednesday
night. Seas return to 2-3 feet on Wednesday night with no swell
likely to affect our area during this forecast period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...21/SRP


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