Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241607
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1109 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, as
mild southerly winds spread across the Carolinas, temperatures
a bit cooler at the beaches. Isolated showers will dot the area
this weekend. Good rain chances will arrive Sunday night and
Monday, as a cold front crosses the coast, bringing cooler, but
still above normal temperatures early next week. A warming trend
will unfold through mid-week, as a strong low pressure system
passes to the northwest. Cooling will arrive late in the week,as
a cold front sweeps off the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1034 AM Saturday...Cumulus congestus underway, having
transitioned from low-based early morning stratus and fog in
many places, diurnal convection process gearing up inland now.
Serious dry capping remains aloft, but it does appear, enough
moisture is present to trip off a zone of afternoon isolated
showers co-located with strengthening, sea-breeze induced
convergence. This to be geographically positioned from the
interior of of Georgetown and Horry counties, to Columbus and
northern Brunswick county, to interior Pender County. Through
late morning, central Brunswick and New Hanover counties may see
a brief shower as convergence streets continue to prevail.

Record maximum temperatures today include, ILM 81 in 1982, CRE
78 in 1996, and FLO 82 in 1962. We are forecasting at present,
only FLO to tie its record. Late tonight, isolated marine
showers may edge onshore along the coast and Cape Fear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Just 1 more day of 80+ degree highs and
then Summer is over, and back to reality with temps
transitioning back to near normal for late February.

Models indicate the break down of the upper ridging thats been
supplying the FA with summer-like conditions. Successive
mid-level s/ws are progged to wear down and suppress the upper
ridge as they move and track to the northeast. This will also
allow a frontal boundary thats been plaguing the Central U.S. to
finally push ESE then temporarily stall across or just east of
the FA for Monday due to it`s parallel alignment to the flow
aloft. Look for widely scattered showers well ahead of the sfc
cold front Sunday. With limited CAPE, 1st inclination was to
keep thunder at bay, but given our summer-like conditions, will
include isolated thunder. Pcpn will become more widespread
Sunday night as the sfc front moves closer and temporarily
stalls across or just south of the ILM CWA. Have indicated
likely POPs for Monday. Once again, limited CAPE to exist with
the NAM being more generous, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rain. The FA lies in the right rear
quadrant of the 300mb upper jet which will result in favorable
UVVs. Once again, limited CAPE to exist, with the NAM being
more generous, and as a result, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rains. A positively tilted mid-
level upper trof will finally jump-start the sfc front and push
it off to well south and east of the FA during Monday night.
Pcpn will end Monday Evening the latest, followed by some CAA
with residual moisture in the form of clouds

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A slow moving cold front is forecast
to come through on Monday. The surface boundary will be
accompanied by a dry WNW mid level flow. Normally this is not
conducive for significant rainfall and Monday appears to be no
different. Tuesday will be the one day that high pressure wedges
in from the north behind the front. By Wednesday the high moves
offshore and return flow gets underway. Models are not in
agreement regarding the pace at which this leads to cloudiness
and rain chance. Will show a gradual trend through Wednesday
into Wednesday night as usually with moisture advection slower
solutions tend to be better ones. A more substantial cold front
arrives late Thursday or Friday. Guidance varies considerably
with the pattern aloft casting uncertainty regarding rain
prospects with this stronger boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18Z...Some convergence boundaries will produce some light
showers this afternoon, mainly between the coastal terminals and the
inland terminals. Southwest flow today, mainly below 10 kts.
Tonight, another unseasonably warm night, with some IFR conditions
possible mainly inland, and only for a few hours. Sunday, increasing
cloudiness as the next front slowly approaches. Southwest winds will
increase ahead of the front, gusting near 20 kts at times.

Extended Outlook...Approaching cold front will bring increasing
chances for showers and MVFR Sunday and Monday. VFR Tuesday.
Showers possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1034 AM Saturday...Seas 3 feet every 9 seconds expected
today into tonight. Maybe up to 4 ft well offshore, but the
longer periods will make for low steepness. NO TSTMS through
tonight, but expect isolated showers and patches of sea fog at
times. S gusts to 17 kt inshore between 2pm and 5 pm.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Ahead of the cold front, looking at SW
winds increasing to 15 to occasionally 20 kt by midday and
continuing well into Sunday night before it`s passage or it`s
temporary stall. Significant seas will build to 3 to 5 ft most
locations and combining it with the wind field, SCEC conditions
will be met. Looking at increasing coverage of showers late
Sunday and Sunday night. After the passage of the cold front
early Mon, pcpn will transition to stratiform light rains. For
Mon thru Mon night, and after the CFP, winds will veer to the
W to NW, then N to NE Monday night. The CAA surge lags well
behind the front, and should affect the local waters Monday
night with 15 to 20 kt speeds. Significant seas may temporarily
drop back to 2 to 4 ft Monday but should see 3 to 5 ft again Mon
night. The ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will affect the
FA thruout this period. Local wind driven waves will aid in
pushing overall seas to once again SCEC thresholds Mon night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Frontal passage on Monday will lead to a
shift from W to NW winds. This front will be weak and so not
expecting any surge of high pressure, cold air, or gusty winds.
High pressure behind the front does not drive very far south as
it progresses off the coast to our north heading into Tuesday.
This turns winds to NE and then E with no significant change in
wind speeds. The onshore flow direction however will allow for
slightly larger seas. No headlines are planned at this time.
Wind and waves may build at the end of the period or just beyond
with the approach of the next front, which will be much
stronger.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Colby
NEAR TERM...Colby
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43



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