358
FXUS63 KPAH 050732
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, ending this
  evening as a frontal boundary passes through the area.

- High temperatures will cool from the mid to upper 80s
  Thursday and Friday to the upper 70s and low 80s for the
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A cold front will pass through the area from the west and northwest
through early this afternoon. As this happens, a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms will push through the area along and ahead
of the frontal boundary. Forcing isn`t particularly strong along the
boundary, but enough to keep scattered showers and storms
through early afternoon. Instability is expected to be around
500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front, this will allow for thunder,
but storms aren`t expected to be strong or severe this morning
as shear is fairly weak ahead of the front. Additional showers
and storms may develop along the front over the eastern portions
of the area, western KY into southwest IN as the frontal
boundary exits to the east. High pressure will then begin
building in from the northwest overnight, bringing and end to
the precipitation.

Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure continues to build across the
region.

A closed low is still expected to set up over the Great Lakes for
the weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for
northwest flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow
around the upper-level low, especially Saturday into Sunday. This
will allow for intermittent increases in cloud cover and at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Expect
precipitation chances to increase as it becomes more clear on the
timing of each one of the aformentioned disturbances. This will also
lead to a bit cooler conditions across the Quad State area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A cold front will approach the region tonight and make passage
on Wednesday. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain a possibility. The greatest
potential for that to occur appears to be late tonight into
Wednesday morning. That activity would likely be accompanied by
some MVFR ceiling and perhaps visibility restrictions. However,
confidence is fairly low given the wide spread in model data at
this time. Outside of the activity, mainly VFR conditions are
anticipated through much of tonight and by Wednesday afternoon.
South winds 5 to 10 knots tonight will become southwesterly
Wednesday morning, then shift to the west with frontal passage
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RJP