Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232007

National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Surface dew points are running drier than modeled this pm,
despite beginning to show signs of waa in our southwest. As a
result, we`ve adjusted immediate near term temps (this pm) upward
and dew points downward accordingly.

This morning we saw mid 20s, to near 30 degrees, for Lows. With
dew points tonight in the u20s-around 30, and weak waa, will go
for Lows in the lower 30s tonight. Visible shots show some high
clouds incoming from the High Plains, that may scatter about our
night-time skies as well.

WAA kicks in a little stronger Tue-Wed time frame. Dew points
shoud be rising through the 30s, to near 40 degrees. Deeper seated
moisture/pcpn will hold off, but the corresponding moistening in
the profile will be warming as well. We`ll see highs rise through
the 50s tmrw, and push 60 degrees for Wed. South winds will pick
up a little better by Wed as the surface high eases off to the
east and a developing rain system approaches from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

With the East Pacific closed circulation finally moving onshore in
Northern California, there may be some finality on the timing of
the precipitation moving into the region on Thanksgiving Day. Last
week, the leading edge of the precipitation did not move into the
area until Thursday morning, now it is running 6 to 9 hours ahead
of that schedule.

Despite that timing difference, still have greater confidence for
the onset of rain Thanksgiving day into Friday. However,
confidence goes down substantially over the weekend and into
Monday, as both the ECMWF and GFS vary significantly on the
development and movement of the re-energized closed low over
northern California Saturday. Both have impact on the degree and
intensity of Southern U.S. ridging that develops northward toward
the WFO PAH forecast area. The regionally initialized model blend
weighs heavily toward the GFS deterministic/ensemble component,
especially Sunday through Monday. From a collaboration standpoint,
will still have to include a chance for showers through the
weekend, tapering off from the west into Monday. Would not be
surprised if PoPs go down further until the ECMWF/GFS and resolve
the interaction from the reformed California low and the northern
stream shortwave moving over the Great Lakes and Northeast.


Issued at 1216 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Clear skies this pm will yield to a few mid-high clouds tonight.
Soutwest to west winds may occasionally gust this pm, but should
diminish as they become more uniform southerly overnight. Model
time height/cross sections reveal the upper trop moistening works
down to about 700 mb by tmrw morning, so we`ll introduce a sct-bkn
mid deck cig for the planning period, as low level southerlys get
going again during the daylight hours.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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