Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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729
FXUS63 KABR 111724
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Winds have subsided from the James valley and points west so have
removed headlines from that area. Winds continue across the
northeast where we will see the best cold advection and there are
still pressure rises coming down along the Red River valley. No
other changes of note.

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Strong winds are beginning to affect the western CWA and have
decided to go with a Wind Advisory through the morning hours. In
fact, went with one across the whole CWA for the morning, with the
southern CWA expiring at 21Z. Although, feel the strongest of winds
will be over the western CWA and in the Coteau region. 0.5km winds
of 50kts currently moving across the western CWA and will spread
east over the next couple hours. The central CWA may be more
marginal with speeds, but it should be close or either short lived
criteria anyway. As far as precipitation with this area of low
pressure, currently seeing scattered rain showers mainly as this
system rotates through. Rather amazing to see temps this mild in the
middle of the night in December with readings in the 30s in 40s -
even well upstream temps are still mild. Most obs upstream have been
mostly rain and have been adjusting weather grids accordingly based
on hourly temps trends. Temperatures do appear to max out this
morning for eastern areas. Then, colder air begins to surge
southward across the Red River valley later this morning then
eventually spreads over the eastern CWA. 925mb temps take a tumble
through the day, so will see falling temps as the day progresses.

Low temperatures tonight are a bit tricky. We do see a weak surface
ridge axis sliding across, with winds going fairly light. Although,
models are in pretty good agreement in bringing a band of low clouds
across the CWA. Clouds will counter any appreciable temps falls
tonight as the winds go light.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The recent positive phase of the Pacific North American pattern
(PNA) is expected to continue through the long term, but should
under go a bit of weakening, transitioning to a less amplified long
wave pattern. It looks to be a fairly active period with occasional
s/ws moving through the fast flow pattern. The most obvious waves
both sfc/aloft swing through on Wednesday and again Friday night, as
well as Sunday night. Each system will have the potential to produce
some light pcpn across the region. There are some differences in
timing between the long range models, so overall confidence in the
forecast details is only about average. With a lack of any decent
cold air feed nearby, temperatures through the period should average
out near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Gusty north/northwest winds will continue through the afternoon,
with generally MVFR ceilings and VFR visibility. Ceilings will
slowly improve as well, becoming VFR. We see a warm front move
back into the area, so the wind direction will shift to westerly
(though these winds will be much lighter) and possibly an MVFR
stratus layer will migrate across the terminals for a few hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ008-020>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly



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