Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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384
FXUS63 KABR 231512 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1012 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Added in some showers for areas east of the James Valley as a
short wave brings some additional energy to squeeze moisture out
of the existing stratus deck. Also lowered high temps a couple of
degrees across the east. Satellite continues to show a clearing
edge across western SD, but it is not moving east very quickly, so
took this into account.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The cold front has cleared the CWA early this morning with breezy
northwest winds in its wake as cooler air begins filtering in from
the north. Lower clouds are also moving south out of ND and will
overspread the CWA through the morning hours. Temperatures today
will be below normal with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Even
cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with 850 mb temps
remaining in the single digits. Compact upper circulation is
expected to slide southeast over the region, with a core of cold
temps aloft moving over the eastern CWA. This low could also
generate some shower activity over the far east and will leave in
small chance POPs. Highs will likely only reach the lower 60s across
eastern areas on Saturday, which is well below normal. Throw in some
breezy northwest winds and it will feel downright chilly on
Saturday. Surface high pressure settles over the region by 12Z
Sunday, and with good radiational cooling likely to set up,
expecting chilly lows that morning with readings in the lower 40s.
Favored cold spots could even sneak into the upper 30s if ideal
conditions set up. MET guidance has readings in the upper 30s for
ABR and MBG. Adjustments from SuperBlend included low temperatures
(dropped a few degrees) and wind speeds today and Saturday
(increased a few knots).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The extended period starts off with the region under northwest flow
between a trough to the east and ridging to the west. This pattern
will hold until Tuesday when the ridge slides over the plains
region, with the flow becoming more zonal Tuesday night and
Wednesday before a shortwave trough moves through on Thursday.

At the surface, high pressure will be dominant over the region and
will keep conditions dry Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Low
pressure then approaches with a frontal boundary sliding across the
area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, becoming the focus for
shower and thunderstorm development. Current model runs indicate
MUCAPE values in the 2500-3500 j/kg range along with shear values of
30-40 knots. This could result in strong, to potentially severe,
storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. One limiting factor may be a
strengthening cap, so will continue to monitor. May see additional
precipitation chances late in the period as another system moves
through, but instability will be lacking, so may be just some
general showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be right around normal through the period, with highs
mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows in the mid 50s lower 60s
will be common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Breezy northwest winds will occur across much of the region during
the daytime hours.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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