Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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003
FXUS63 KABR 281132 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Current satellite imagery is showing one vort max departing and
moving through MN while additional upper level energy is racing
southeast out of Canada and taking aim at the Dakotas. We are in
between systems for the time being, leaving behind mostly clear
skies and perfect conditions to view the impressive Northern Lights
show! This next system to our north will move into the area this
afternoon, setting the stage for another afternoon of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be noticeably stronger today
compared to yesterday but previous forecasts have already handled
this well in going above or near the stronger end of guidance in
regards to wind speeds. Does not appear to be wind advisory levels,
just a typical breezy/windy day across the Northern Plains. Whatever
shower and storm activity develops this afternoon will wane this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

On Monday, the upper level low over Ontario will rotate another
piece of energy southward across the region. Anticipating another
round of widely scattered showers Monday afternoon, mainly for
eastern areas. Cooler air will begin moving into the region on
Monday as well, with highs dropping back down into the 60s with
breezy northwest winds. Tuesday is looking dry but we will keep the
cool temps in place along with the breezy northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Compared to 24 hours ago, there are still a couple of items in the
00Z model solutions worth mentioning. The first is how cold it could
get over the CWA Tuesday night while cool surface high pressure is
centered over the region. MEX/ECE MOS guidance is nailing KABR to a
low temperature between 35 and 39 degrees, which is a solid category
or more of temperature colder than what Superblend gave this morning
for the Tuesday night low. So collaborated, as a target of
opportunity, the nudging downward of low temperature between the MO
River and James River valleys into the upper 30s.

The Canadian/GFS and ECMWF all continue to advertise some short-wave
energy trying to get passed western CONUS longwave upper level
ridging and work eastward into the plains states Wednesday night
into Thursday. Superblend maintains some small chance pops during
that time. The Canadian/GFS and ECMWF also continue to advertise a
larger more vigorous short-wave trof dampening/moving through the
upper level longwave ridge (centered on the central/northern high
plains) Thursday night through Friday night and generate some
precipitation chances over the Dakotas, although they`re still not
in the greatest agreement on placement/timing. Beyond that, the
models begin to diverge in longwave pattern evolution. The 00Z
GFS/Canadian begin to carve out a broad western CONUS longwave trof
and some downstream ridging over this region, while the ECMWF tries
to pump up some longwave ridging again over the western CONUS,
keeping this cwa in more west-northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Northwest winds increase to 15 to 30 knots with gusts at times to
35 knots or more. There will also be some mixing layer clouds
developing today with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected by late afternoon. It`s possible a couple
of these showers/maybe a stray thunderstorm wander into terminal
airspace or move within the vicinity. It is expected that VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF valid period at KPIR and
KMBG. KABR/KATY may be feeling the effects of MVFR cigs moving in
from the north at or after 12Z Monday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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