Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231151
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER IOWA...AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THIS CWA...ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM IS RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. RECENT SNOWFALL IN THE
EASTERN CWA...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S AT BEST.

MODELS AGREE WELL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
WILL BE ALL LIQUID TONIGHT. WHILE RAIN WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE CWA ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE FAR
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ABOUT HALF THE MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING SOME MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. THROUGHT ABOUT
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PER THE SREF...HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A WIDE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE EAST...AND
LOWER 60S FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST THE 23.00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION /MOST LIKELY SNOW/ WILL IMPACT THE AREA. OVERALL...THE
MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED BACK NORTH /YEESH/...KEEPING MUCH OF THE
TROWAL INDUCED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS CLIPPING
THE NERN CWA. WHAT IS PRETTY OBVIOUS IS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN
WAVES...SO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. THERE IS
RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WINDY
DAY WITH STRONG CAA...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND H925 WINDS OF 35-40
KTS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO
BECOME RATHER BENIGN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE
FAMILIAR UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE WEST. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
CLIPPER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE ROLLER
COASTER TREND DUE TO OSCILLATIONS IN CAA AND WAA REGIMES. EXPECT
COOL READINGS /30S AND 40S/ ON WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH A
WARMING TREND IN THE 50S TO 60S INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN
SD...INCLUDING THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE DISSIPATION OF THIS STRATUS...WITH SOME MODELS
KEEPING KABR/KATY IN IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z. FURTHER
WEST...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AT KPIR/KMBG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WILL
MONITOR FOR INCLUSION INTO TAFS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS
LIQUID RAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE





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