Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241621
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1121 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Elevated convective elements associated with the right entrance
region of an 80kt jet continue to propagate across a good portion
of South Dakota, although ceilings are greater than 12kft. Not
much more than a sprinkle or light shower can be expected with any
of these. No other changes to the morning forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Shortwave energy is currently moving across eastern MT and WY.
Starting to see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms
developing over western SD as large scale ascent moves into the
region. Hi-res models picking up on this feature and followed a
blend of the CAM solutions for today`s forecast. Nice accas field
showing up as well over the past hour or two over eastern MT/WY and
far western SD. Upper jet max will be sliding over the area as well
with favorable entrance region. Added pops beginning this morning
over the western CWA and will drag them through the afternoon hours.
With very little instability to work with, looking at mostly showers
with maybe a few isolated thundershowers. Will have to closely watch
trends over the next few hours as latest HRRR run actually brings
showers as far east as ATY/BKX this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then be moving through the region
overnight, bringing light winds and cool temperatures, along with
dry conditions. Monday is looking dry as well but hotter as the
surface high moves off to the east and southerly winds and warm air
advection kick in. Highs will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s
across the region, but with dewpoints remaining in the 50s to low
60s, do not see heat indices being a real issue.

Low level jet gets going Monday night with precipitation chances
returning to the forecast. Elevated instability spreads over the
region too, with low pressure organizing west of the region. On
Tuesday, warm front will set up across the area with additional
focus for showers and thunderstorms. Weak impulses will be moving
eastward within westerly flow aloft. Instability increases over the
region which could lead to some strong to severe storms over parts
of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Persistent weak sfc low pressure will combine with a progressive
shortwave pattern to bring continual chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the extended. Temperatures will be slightly below
average, topping out in the 80s through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east
this morning. However, the expectation is for this activity to
remain south of the taf sites. KPIR would be the most likely to
see a shower or two. VFR conditions are expected through the
period.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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