Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150526 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1126 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Current forecast is on track this evening, therefore no major
changes made at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An upper low over the Great Lakes is dropping lower heights into MN
and northeast SD today. Coupled with a tight thermal advection
gradient, as well, this is translating to gusty northwest winds at
the sfc from the Sisseton Hills eastward. Winds will diminish
tonight as the low shifts farther east. Upper ridging will build in
for the remainder of the short term forecast. More transient flow is
expected at the sfc, but this will only enhance mixing.

The region should expect dry conditions and well above average
temperatures through Thursday night. Highs will climb well into the
50s by Thursday, especially in snow free areas. Once again,
Superblend was underdoing the highs. With 700mb heights around +14C
and 500mb heights in the 560s as well as westerly sfc winds, decided
to bump highs up around 10 degrees which is more in line with the

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

No major deviations in the extended range, which features above
average temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The lone exception to
the "all dry forecast" statement is a system Monday. Long range
deterministic guidance all have subtle variations on intensity and
track, however they do agree that this system will be mostly dry and
fast moving, with only a few hundredths QPF thanks mainly to split
flow and the persistent central CONUS ridge.

Otherwise, 850mb temperatures are above average, and range between 1
and 3 standard deviations above climo. The degree of mixing will
probably be the determining influence on temperatures as we continue
to erode the snow cover. Also of note - during the range of the
extended we see several dates where forecast and record temperatures
are fairly close to each other.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday.




LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.