Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260528 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Made a few adjustments to pops this evening. Moved precip to the
southeast a little faster as it exits. Although there is some
isolated lightning with the showers in ND, decided to remove
thunderstorm mention from the forecast since there has been no
lightning activity with the current showers in SD and instability
is very limited.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The forecast challenge is low temperatures tonight.

Currently, some areas are seeing full sunshine and some areas are
seeing completely overcast. Where it`s sunny, temperatures are
warming quickly through the 70s this afternoon. Where it`s cloudy,
temperatures are stuck in the 60s and in some locations, the
radar suggests it might even be sprinkling or lightly raining.
Over the next 6 to 9 hours, increasing coverage of daytime-
heating-induced showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms is
expected. After sundown, any precipitation around should dissipate
and/or move southeast out of the region.

Overnight and during the day Monday, more surface high pressure
originating from Canada will drop down over the CWA. With lack of
wind and clear skies expected, temperatures Monday morning should be
rather chilly once more (upper 30s/low 40s). Winds will be light and
variable and with negligible thermal advection, modified airmass
theory kicks in and temperatures should warm into the 70s for most
of the forecast area. Parts of central and north central South
Dakota, could see temperatures nudge up into the 80s. Overall, dry
and pleasant weather conditions make Monday one of the best days of
the week to be outdoors.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The main focus of this forecast period is the chances of severe
weather Tuesday night. Strong return flow sets up Tuesday with a
return of moisture (dewpoints ~60F), instability and warm air.
The low level jet will be cranking up Tuesday ahead of the
shortwave. Right now it looks like convection will be capped for
most of the day, then storms erupting around the Missouri River
and moving east during the evening as cap erodes along the sfc
trough. All models in agreement with convection, and SPC has a
large portion in the Day 3 slight risk area. Showers and storms
look to linger into Wednesday as well.

For Wednesday through Sunday temps look to be below normal with a
warming trend by the weekend. While there is nothing to suggest a
large scale precipitation or severe event, it does look like
afternoon or evening showers will be possible, especially Thursday
and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and through the day Monday.




LONG TERM...Scarlett
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