Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191514 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Forecast is on track so no changes are planned at this time. Mid
morning temperatures in the lower 80s will continue to rise
quickly today, especially across central SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Will be monitoring potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern CWA over the next couple hours as low level jet
strengthens over the area. Hi-res models continue to suggest this as
the nose of the jet moves into the area around 09Z to 10Z. Currently
seeing activity increasing over FSD CWA. Will maintain precip
chances in the morning hours across the eastern CWA to account for
any activity that moves through. RAP also suggesting some degree of
stratus clouds across the eastern CWA through the morning. Obs to
the south have BKN/OVC CIGs so the possibility of this advecting
northward like the RAP suggests is fairly high.

Main story in the short term continues to be the building heat and
humidity across the region. It starts today as 925/850 MB temps warm
impressively across the area, especially from the James Valley and
points west. Central SD expecting to rise to around 100 degrees
today with 90s into the James River area. The heat expands to the
east and intensifies CWA-wide on Wednesday, with many locations at
or above 100 degrees from the James Valley west into central SD.
Concerning headlines, decided to upgrade the excessive heat watch to
a warning based mainly on the duration of heat with temps in the mid
90s to low 100s. Heat indices during the short term will range from
around 95 degrees to 110 degrees. Although, the eastern CWA will not
get in on the real hot stuff until Wednesday. Felt the excessive
heat warning was the better product to highlight the main impact,
which is the prolonged period of heat this week, even if specific
criteria falls short in places.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

This morning`s extended package begins at the tail end of the
extreme heat event this week. Return flow south-southeasterly winds
bring the higher end warm air and moist air back into the cwa for
Friday before a strong (for July) cold front is forecast to sweep
sewd through the region, signaling the return to more seasonal
temperatures over the weekend. Superblend temperature guidance for a
4th straight morning appears to be under-achieving as far as how
potentially warm it could be for Friday, so did collaborate a nudge
to temps up a few degrees across the southern two-thirds of the cwa.
Superblend has been doing a decent job remaining consistent with
generating probabilities of precipitation heading into Friday
night/Saturday likely attempting to generate convection along the
cold front when it passes through the region. Until said cold fropa,
temperatures aloft (700hpa and higher) should be warm enough to
cap off any convective potential Thursday night and Friday.
Heading into next week, it appears that upper level steering flow
could become northwesterly to some degree, provided the forecast
western conus upper level ridge materializes. Depending on where
this upper level ridge`s axis sets up will go a long way in
determining how much (if any) it can warm up across mainly the
western half of the cwa next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

With the influx of higher dewpoint air (upper 60s to lower 70s)
into the forecast area, have seen some scattered to occasionally
broken 1300-3900ft agl stratus clouds developing/moving over taf`d
terminals this morning. by late morning, mixing should pretty much
eradicate any sub-vfr cigs, leaving VFR conditions to prevail
across the area through tonight. A few showers or weak
thunderstorms are noted forming this morning between KHON and KFSD
moving northeast. Expecting some of this activity to make it into
KATY airspace for perhaps a couple of hours this morning, so shra
with vcts has been inserted into the KATY TAF this morning.
Additional isolated to widely scattered convection is still possible
across the CWA later this evening.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn


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