Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251113 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
613 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Main forecast challenge in the short term period is convective
chances later today into tonight, and the potential for severe
weather. The mid level flow will be nearly zonal today, but will see
some shortwave activity track across mainly the southern part of the
state this evening into the overnight hours. A surface warm front
associated with low pressure to the west will set up over the
southern part of the state as well, and looks to become the focus
for convection late this afternoon into tonight. The better dynamics
look to set up over southwestern Minnesota, but will see MUCAPE
values of 2500-3500 J/KG, along with bulk shear of 40 to 50 knots,
which should be enough to sustain convection, with severe storms
possible. SPC has introduced an enhanced risk over the portions of
the eastern and southern CWA, so will focus higher pops in those
locations. May see some precipitation linger into Wednesday morning,
then high pressure will drop over the area, bringing dry conditions
back to the region Wednesday afternoon through the day Thursday.

With the warm front over the area today, will see fairly warm
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Cooler air
will move in with the surface high, with highs in the 80s Wednesday
and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Hot mid level ridge will continue across the southern/southwestern
conus through the period. Meanwhile, a gradual increase in amplitude
of the ridge aloft is expected to occur over the Rockies/western
high plains. This will bring northwest flow back to the region, and
northwest flow is always tricky in the summer. A couple of fronts
are expected to move over the region, with some chances for rain.
However, model differences and run to run inconsistencies lend some
uncertainty to timing of pcpn and thus will have to rely on model
blend.  Temperatures overall will probably average out right around
normal for much of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected over the region today. By late
afternoon and early evening storms are expected to light up along
a front situated from KPIR/KATY. Some of those storms will be
strong to severe. Brief periods of IFR conditions can be expected
with any storms that move over a terminal.




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