000
FXUS63 KABR 101539 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1039 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR NOW SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL
HAVE TO DIGEST LATEST RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO WX/POP
GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPS ARE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RATHER
WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WESTERLY BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED.
READINGS ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH MORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. 925 MB TEMPS LATER TODAY ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SUNDAY...WITH SFC WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND CLOUDS
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL
MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL NONETHELESS.

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PRECIP EVENT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO NOTE HERE...JUST
THE TYPICAL SLIGHT SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF
BAND...BUT NOTHING REAL SIGNIFICANT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE 06Z
NAM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AGAIN...MORE TOWARDS WHAT THE EC
IS SHOWING. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE HWY 212
TO HWY 14 AREAS. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING WARM ENOUGH AIR AROUND
INITIALLY TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BE
ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING OVERALL SNOW ACCUMS. MODELS WOULD SUGGEST
A GRADUAL SWITCH TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
AROUND 03Z TO 09Z. STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE...AND THE UPPER JET STREAK/RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION IS STILL OVERHEAD. LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE AS
WELL...AND SHOWS UP WITHIN SNOW GROWTH REGION AFTER THE PRECIP
SWITCH.

COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT IS WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OVER THIS PART OF
THE COUNTRY A WEEK AGO. SO...COOLER HERE STILL MEANS HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE
US WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A COUPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA WHILE THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE REGION. WARMER AIR DRAW IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TROUGH
WILL BRING A WARM DAY TO THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S. SOME LEFTOVER SNOWFALL MAY STILL HAVE
AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAY WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
IN. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA BRINGING IN CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S FOR BOTH
DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND LOWER AS LIFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS EVENING AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BECOMING IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
COULD OCCUR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN