Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 302353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN SD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WRAPPING AROUND FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. WITH SHEAR OF 35 TO 60 KTS SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LINE FIZZLES. BEHIND THIS ONE LINE CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY WHERE
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL WED MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 6Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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