Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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145
FXUS63 KABR 250531 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The majority of the CWA has cleared off this evening, with the
exception being the far southeast where some lower clouds are
lingering. May still see some patchy fog overnight, but expect it
to be more confined to the far eastern CWA where more moisture
will be in place. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main challenge in the short range will be temps and fog chances.
For tonight, expect more fog to form given little to no dry air
advection and fairly light winds. Clouds should continue to thin
out/dissipate over the east this evening, but may not completely
fall apart.

Could be a repeat of fog Saturday night, but approaching system from
the west may put the kibosh on that as mid/high clouds stream out
east a head of the system. Speaking of that system, from a PV
anomaly/energy perspective, it doesn`t appear to be all that
strong. Pcpn associated with that energy may not make it east of
the Missouri River valley Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures
overall will favor near or even a bit above normal given the lack
of any cold air feed over the forecast area through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

An active weather pattern is expected across the conus through the
long term portion of the forecast. While there is a general
agreement among models with the evolution of the upper level flow
pattern, they differ in timing and intensity of individual waves.
PCPN chances over the Northern Plains will likely depend on the
connection to the more active southern jet. The first system to
cross the region on Sunday night is a bit disconnect to the southern
jet. Thus, this system may pass through the region mostly dry.
Another system on Wednesday/Wednesday night lacks LLM as well
with a mostly dry passage possible. A third storm system looks
possible at the end of the period. Overall, forecast confidence in
the long term is low with regards to pcpn chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An area of IFR/MVFR cigs currently over the far eastern CWA will
slowly drift westward to about the James River Valley through the
overnight hours. Also look for the possibility for some MVFR vsbys
in fog developing in that area as well. The western CWA will remain
VFR overnight. The low clouds will linger in KATY through the
morning, but clear elsewhere. MVFR cigs may develop again in KATY
Saturday night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise



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