Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 092034
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SWATH OF SMOKE STILL NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE FROM NORTHWEST ND
THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD. IT HAS ACTUALLY CAUSED SOME SLIGHT VSBY
ISSUES WITH 4SM TO 6SM TYPE VSBYS FROM HON UP THROUGH BIS AND ON
INTO NORTHWEST ND. EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME A THING OF THE PAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN CHANGES.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY SFC
FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SOME SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE THURSDAY EVENING AS SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL JET ALSO INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING
NOSE OF JET AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN.
CONSTRUCTED POP GRIDS SO HIGHEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE SFC FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD REALLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING BUT REMOVED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT LOOKS TO
CLEAR THE CWA TO THE SOUTH BY THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA....ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EARLY
ON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
THUS...KEPT WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA. THEN THE MODELS AGREE WELL WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST IN SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IT IS LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE EAST MAY MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY
AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS
THE CWA. AFTER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT MAINLY MBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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