


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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978 FXUS63 KABR 121117 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 617 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke will return today, both aloft and near the surface. Visibility during the morning hours may be significantly reduced as it moves through northern and eastern South Dakota and into west central MN. - Precipitation returns to the area early next week with the highest chances (40-60%) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. - The potential exists for a noticeable cool-down during the middle of next week (temperatures 10 to perhaps 15 degrees below normal). && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Both sfc high pressure and an upper trough slide east today and tonight. Cooler temperatures under the upper trough (highs in the 70s) across the east will be further depressed by returning smoke from Canadian wildfires. The HRRR drops visibility in near sfc smoke from just west of the James Valley eastward this morning. Upstream obs are as low as 2 miles in smoke. It does look fairly quick moving, though, and except for areas east of I-29, seems to not affect peak heating time. Still, elevated smoke is expected to arrive in waves. This may all be enough to drop forecast highs from model guidance by 2 to 3 degrees. On Sunday, a weak trough moves through as upper ridging builds in from the west. Elevated smoke may move back in behind the trough on north to northwest flow. For now, stuck close to NBM for highs which soar into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Winds aloft will turn more zonal Monday with a couple of weak shortwaves embedded within this flow pushing eastward across the northern CONUS and Canada through the middle of next week. A lee low is forecasted to form over MT Sunday evening and track southward over the Northern Plains through Tuesday, with the CWA forecasted to be behind the low/cold front by Wednesday morning. High pressure from the north will start to dip down during this time and center itself over the Northern Plains for the end of the week bringing dry weather. It will then shift southeast and out of the region by Saturday. Zonal flow will continue aloft with more of a broad low amplitude ridge building over the Rockies/Plains by Friday. Beyond this time frame, Clusters really diverge on whether ridging will continue or flatten out. This area of low pressure will bring shower and thunderstorm chances starting Monday evening with precip chances continuing through late Wednesday or early Thursday (model depending). The highest pops of 40-60% is forecasted to be Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning associated with the cold front. Severe weather could be possible, especially within the warm sector on Monday and ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Right now CIPS does not indicate a severe threat while CSU/NSSL highlights a 5-15% chance both of these days for portions of the CWA. Temperatures will be quite toasty on Monday as winds at the surface and 850mb will be out of the south. 850mb temps will range from +20 to +27C which is about average and surface highs are forecasted to range in the upper 80s to the upper 90s. Probability of maxT>100, per NBM, is about 15-20% over portions of south central SD. Fast forward to behind the cold front and it is going to feel more like fall on Wednesday and Thursday! 850mb temps will cool to +12 to +15C, which is about 1 standard deviation below climo per NAEFS. NBM high temps for both of these days are only forecasted in the upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. EC EFI indicates MaxT is -0.6 to -0.8 with a shift of tails of zero over northern SD Wednesday and northern half of the state on Thursday. Temps do rebound back into the 70s and 80s by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Smoke from Canadian wildfires is expected to move over KABR and KATY later this morning and slowly progress east into the evening. Visibility may be reduced to MVFR/IFR at times. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...20