Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 222329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MODELS ALL AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF OF THIS WAS OVER
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY ALSO ALL SHOW SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR QPF
WITH THE EC PRETTY MUCH DRY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME AND THEY
MAY HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK EVEN MORE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CLOUD
UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S FOR SATURDAY. THEN WHEN THE MAIN ENERGY COMES OUT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. THE MODELS SHOW THAT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS CWA. THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THUS THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR PCPN IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD. THAT SAID...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING COOL...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN MAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO...A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT NORTH INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME. VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK


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