Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE A STRATUS DECK ADVECTS SOUTH
OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA. SOME FOG
HAS DEVELOPED...BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION IN CASE VISIBILITY TANKS
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...BUT THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE LAGS FURTHER BEHIND. MOST MODELS DO NOT
HAVE THE NW SD CONVECTION MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO OUR CWA...SO
REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER. POPS THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS ACTUALLY SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK JET STREAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 6
DECAMETERS. THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AREAS FURTHER EAST COULD BE UNDER STRATUS FOR
A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING AT LEAST 1500
J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO ACTUALLY
BE BULK SHEAR PRESENT TODAY AS WELL...AND COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE....STORMS ARE LIKELY...AND SOME
MAY BE SEVERE. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AS WILL
HEAVY RAIN. SOME MODELS ARE MORE BULLISH THAN OTHERS...BUT AT LEAST A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ALLOWING STORMS
TO PERSIST FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SOON THEREAFTER...AS A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND TOWARDS THE GFS
DEPICTION OF UPPER FEATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A THIRD WAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AT OR A TAD ABOVE NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE LOW. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
WILL START EARLY...AND MODEL DEWPOINTS SUGGEST A RANGE OF MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/MVFR
FOG ALONG WITH STRATUS CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS. THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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