Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201123 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
523 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Best forcing and moderate snowfall is moving into the eastern CWA,
with more light snow extending back to the Dakotas/Montana/Wyoming
border. BUFKIT profiles stay mostly saturated all day, with a broad
upper trough to the west migrating east with a noticeable PV anomaly
and wave evident upstream. Thus, looks like most of the day will
remain cloudy with continuous light snow, though not much additional
accumulation. The gradient will also continue to weaken, and blowing
snow is becoming less and less of an issue. Then we have a high that
moves in tonight, across central to southeast South Dakota. This
will leave most of the area with a light west wind. Will be a tricky
forecast as the recent snow cover will present us with very
favorable radiational conditions. With clouds sticking around most of
the day, we will also see little warming, so the starting point this
evening will only be in the single digits. Thus - could easily drop
into the teens below zero. This also gets us into wind chill
advisory criteria overnight. Once headlines from previous winter
weather have expired would be more comfortable with issuing fresh
wind chill advisories for tonight however.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

The current active pattern across the region looks to continue into
the near future as west to southwest flow aloft dominates the
picture. Energy aloft is expected to continually re-load the western
conus trof, with that energy then ejecting east across the Rockies
and into the plains. During the long term, the main feature to
affect our weather looks to come through Thursday afternoon and
night. All three deterministic models (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) have latched
onto a pv anomaly that crosses the region during this time frame.
The ECMWF/CMC are especially bullish with PoPs/QPF. Because of this
agreement, and thus enhanced confidence, did collaborate a bit
higher PoPs and QPF for the event with surrounding offices. The rest
of the forecast looks to be mainly dry at this point, with another
system expected to remain south of the forecast area early this
weekend. Temperatures will favor colder than normal for most of the
period, especially given widespread new snow pack across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions are expected at all terminals through
noon, or until the snow ends. For this afternoon mostly VFR
conditions will exist.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     SDZ037-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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