Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241558 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1058 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE PCPN LIFTING NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE ARE BATCHES OF SHOWERS ON
RADAR...THE TIME ARRIVAL TOOL HAS MOST OF THE SHOWERS REACHING
ABERDEEN BETWEEN 1-2 PM...AND MOBRIDGE CLOSER TO 4 PM CDT.
ALSO...PER THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR DEPICTS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDERS. ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION HAVE
CLIMBED BACK INTO THE 50S...AND OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A
SATURATED COLUMN. MODEL DATA 24 HOURS AGO SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE
DEFINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS TIME FRAME...SO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING SEEM
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. CONTINUED THE MUCH SLOWER TREND OF POPS INTO
TODAY...AND STILL THIS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED. THE MODERATE TO WEAK 700-500 MB OMEGA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME GREATER QPF
POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT AGAIN...SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WARRANTS A LOW POP AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ALL THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BY TUESDAY THEY SHOULD RISE BACK INTO
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TUNNEL...RESPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. REASON: THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE IN PLAY ON A DEVELOPING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL
GENERATE AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO ANCHOR ITSELF ON. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SWITCHES GEARS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR A SHORT TIME HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.
SUPERBLEND HAS ALL THIS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ALSO NOTING THE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...VFR FLYING
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT KPIR...WHERE CIGS ARE DOWN TO
1800FT AGL /MVFR/. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF FLT CAT DOWN INTO IFR...DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW
CIGS. ALTHOUGH...VISBIES MAY GET DOWN TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TRYING TO NAIL DOWN TIMING/COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION SINCE FRIDAY MORNING HAS BEEN CHALLENGING...TO SAY
THE LEAST. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ACTUAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO THAT IS WHEN
LIGHT RAINFALL WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE TAFS...MAINLY AT OR AFTER
06Z MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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