Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 010010 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN






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