Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MN
TODAY...WHICH MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS MN. A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE
WEAK STORMS EVEN AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SD...BUT THIS IS LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO A SEPARATE WEAKER IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATER
TODAY. LEFT POPS OUT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND CENTRAL SD BUT IT MAY
BE WORTH ANOTHER LOOK WHEN 12Z MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE AND AFTER
LOOKING AT A FEW MORE HOURS WORTH OF CAM SOLUTIONS.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AS 925/850 MB
TEMPS GET RATHER TOASTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS THE CWA.

NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES IN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. APPEARS HIGHEST CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SVR PARAMETERS ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE SO EXPECTING
JUST GENERIC SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SFC WAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AS THE PERIOD OPENS...STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AND...TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW NOW...GFS/EC 00Z RUNS COMING IN WITH SOME
CONSIDERABLE DAMPENING/KNOCKING DOWN OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...BY
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL SHOWING UP IN THERE
SOMEWHERE FOR A DECENT S/W TROF PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER THIS REGION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TO STILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF
POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS...BUT THEN THE TREND IS STILL THERE FOR SOME
S/W RIDGING AND A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FROPA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCONNECTS TO IRON OUT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE SWAPPED ROLES THIS MORNING
AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NOW...THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH
HEIGHT FALLS/FASTER WITH OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION/TIMING AND THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED.  24 HOURS
AGO THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING A DECENT SLUG OF PRECIP THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS WAS SLOWER...BRINGING PRECIP THROUGH
MORESO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MORNING...THEY HAVE SWITCHED
PLACES. THE GFS IS NOW BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND THE ECMWF HITS PRECIP CHANCES HARDEST BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING THE COOLEST FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA/. THEN...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SHOW A
GRADUAL RAMP UP TO HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 80S TO
POTENTIALLY THE MID 90S PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE OF THE DAY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXCEPT WHERE SMOKE PLUME FROM CANADIAN-BASED WILDFIRES
INFLUENCES VISIBILITY WITH SOME LIGHT HAZE/OBSCURATION. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OUT THERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTION AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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