Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 122041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT LIKELY CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST CWA SO
WILL MAINTAIN SOME DECENT CHANCE POPS DOWN THAT WAY. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORT RAIN EARLY ON...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMS LOOK TO BE
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

MUCH COOLER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS BRISK NORTH WINDS
ALSO DEVELOP. ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
LIGHT QPF WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND HAVE MAINTAINED THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY...BUT ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA SLIGHTLY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER
ABOUT 96 HOURS THE MODELS GO THEIR OWN WAY IN DEPICTING THE MID
LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS. THEY ALL LOOK A BIT SPLIT
FLOWISH...BUT FROM THERE ITS HARD TO SETTLE ON ANY ONE MODEL
SOLUTION. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY ONLY NIT NOID CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE MODEL BLEND TODAY. ONE THING ALL AGREE ON ARE THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ABOUT MID WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPTING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN SOME IFR CIGS
MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KPIR TO THE NORTH OF A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO SNEAK INTO KPIR LATE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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