Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261753 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING DRY COOL AIR TO THE
REGION. ALOFT...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EXPECTED ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL TO MOVE FROM WEST RIVER INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTION STRAGGLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE SOME MILDER AIR INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IN THE OUT PERIODS...THERE REALLY ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF TIMES WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOW UP. MOST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY
FLATTER /MORE ZONAL/ WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRACK
ENEWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE UNDERGOING A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL...BEFORE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND FROPA PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP CHANCES
ATTACHED TO IT.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND MAY AFFECT THE STATIONS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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