Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Breezy winds across the Sisseton hills and east will quickly
diminish this evening. The main story in the short term will be the
very warm and dry conditions. Warm air advection will drive H85
temps into the mid teens. This will translate to the surface and
push temps into the 70s across the region and around 80 along and
west of the Missouri River. RH will dry out as a result, falling
into the upper teens across central SD. Winds, however, are expected
to be light so there will be no major fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

There remains fairly good agreement through the end of the work week
in terms of the upper/low level pattern and resulting
temperature/wind conditions between deterministic members. The main
theme for Wednesday will be an early day cold frontal passage.
Pressure rises of 7mb/6 hours and weak cold advection will allow for
good mixing conditions on northwest winds. Probably not strong
enough for a wind advisory however as BUFKIT mixed winds top out
around 30-40kts at KMBG.

The associated high pressure system sinks south rapidly Wednesday
night and by Thursday we are in return flow. Light pressure falls
and a 10mb pressure gradient from west to east, along with 850mb
winds upwards of 40kts will means Thursday will also be quite
breezy, mainly across the James valley and to the east, but with a
southerly component. 850mb temperatures also increase, topping out
around 1 to as high as 2 standard deviations above climo. Mixing to
this level (which is indicated in BUFKIT) yields highs in the 70s to
near 80 Thursday. Friday will be very similar although we do see
stronger flow at 850mb, which translates to even stronger southerly
winds during the day. We also introduce some MLCAPE as dewpoints
increase into the 50s ahead of the next front. Looks like frontal
passage is overnight into early Saturday, and best forcing is mostly
east of the CWA so low pops from blended guidance is appropriate for


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




LONG TERM...Connelly
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