Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 141000
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
400 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Another day, another 500mb embedded wave sining in from the
northwest. This one is just to our northwest early this morning, and
will sink southeast through mid afternoon. Current sfc set up shows
a stationary front over our eastern counties, extending from 1016-
1018mb pressure center over eastern ND/northeastern SD and much of
MN. This feature will slide east as a ridge of high pressure
temporarily builds overhead through this evening, before becoming
surpressed to our south as the next trough nears from the north
(extending from the low over northwestern Canada).

Went closer to the RUC13 with the top down method, which reduced the
probability of ice over our eastern counties shortly past 12Z, and
kept a higher chance of freezing drizzle with any of the light radar
returns shown over that area. Even through we seem to be in a lull,
it looks to be temporary as additional light precipitation slides
in from western SD and ND. Continue to monitor upstream observations
where have been mainly reporting SN, although the Glen Ullin station
did briefly report UP. Extended the Winter Weather Advisory until
9am for the lingering freezing drizzle with icy conditions on
untreated roadways. After 9am there will be a better chance of
mainly snow. Total snowfall amounts today should be around an inch
or less, with the best chance of accumulation over our southwestern
counties. Couldn`t rule out some lingering flurries over the east
(mainly Sisseton Hills) tonight. Another concern today will be the
breezy winds developing west of the Missouri River. Winds are
expected to stay below advisory criteria.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

It appears a pattern change will likely take place in the long term,
particularly toward the middle and end of next week. The recent west
conus ridge and east conus trof is forecast to retrograde with
troffing gradually taking shape over the western conus as mid level
ridge develops over the eastern Pacific. Most models, especially
ensembles, indicate as much. Deterministic runs offer less
confidence, but that`s probably to be expected at this time range.

During the long term, probably the best chc for measurable pcpn will
occur Saturday and Saturday night as a system tracks across the
region; and again by the middle to latter part of next week as the
mid level pattern goes through some sort of re-alignment.

Temperatures overall will favor near to above normal for the vast
majority of the forecast.  But, a change to colder temps is likely
toward the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Low VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected through Thursday at all
locations. Some fzdz is expected at ATY and ABR tonight. Otherwise,
light snow will spread in from the northwest later tonight and
Thursday affecting mainly MBG and PIR with IFR/MVFR visibilities
along with some accumulation. ABR and ATY may also be affected with
light snow or flurries.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr


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