Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 252337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
MOVED INTO FAR SW SD AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD LATE THIS EVENING. SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STUBBORN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS HUNG IN ALL DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FORECAST HIGHS.
ALTHOUGH...SUN WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CLEARING LINE ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL
REALIZE HIGHS YET IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
HEATING STILL LEFT.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO REAL LOW LEVEL JET TO SPEAK OF IN THIS CASE. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH IN BRINGING DECENT LIFT WITH THE
700 MB WAVE ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. VARIOUS CAM
SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN SD OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER BREEZY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOOKS TO BE SUB ADVISORY
LEVELS THOUGH AT THIS POINT. STILL WATCHING THE COOL AIR MASS
COMING DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE DAKOTAS. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AS IT STILL APPEARS THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE STUCK IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A WESTERN RIDGE AND AN EASTERN TROUGH...WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE
JUST A BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
SD/WESTERN MN AFFECTING KATY THIS EVENING BUT IS BECOMING MORE
BROKEN AS TIME GOES ON. THIS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD SO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BACK BUILD INTO THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY IMPACT KPIR BETWEEN 4Z AND
10Z BUT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION SO LEFT
OUT A MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY.







&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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