Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 182343 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
543 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The hourly temperature forecast has been tricky today, thanks to a
couple of areas of thick clouds that knock down the temperatures for
a couple of hours before rebounding back as the sun makes another
appearance. The current surface map shows a broad area of low
pressure stretching from Vancouver Island British Columbia down
through ID/western MT and northern WY. As our ridge stretching
across eastern ND through northern IA continues to exit the
picture, the trough to our west will become the story for the next
24 hours. Expect the surface low to slide across central MT and
eastern WY by the end of the day Sunday, but not before pushing a
warm front up across most if not all of our area. Expect
temperatures tonight to fall into the 30s, which will be very close
to our normal high temperatures for this time of year.

The result of the nearing surface low/warm front will be not only
increased temperatures, but also increased southerly winds averaging
15kts over our southeast counties by mid afternoon Sunday.
Temperatures should top out in the 50s to mid 60s, with the warmest
values set up across areas with little to no snow left on the
ground.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The long term models agree well and have shifted the late week storm
system farther to the south this time around. Also, the first three
days of the long term will remain warm mainly in the 50s and 60s for
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. First we have to deal with the
system along the west coast this afternoon moving towards our
region. This will affect our region come Sunday night and Monday.
With good moisture and lift with this system along with weak upper
level instability, expect some showers along with a few thunderstorms
east in the region later Sunday night into Monday. After this moves
on by, a clipper system will drop northwest to southeast across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The models all show the
precipitation with this system falling to the north of our CWA.
Therefore, have it dry in the forecast until Wednesday night. With
the models shifting the late week storm system farther south, so
have the chances of precipitation. With this still being several
days out, the track of the surface low pressure system will likely
change in future model runs. The superblend did lower the pops
mainly across the northern cwa this time around. Otherwise, it looks
like it will be warm enough for some rain to begin Wednesday night
into Thursday then changing over to snow as colder air moves in.
Have in very good chances at this time across the far western and
southern CWA. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to cool into the
30s for Thursday and into the upper 20s and lower 30s for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Did introduce
wind shear to the TAF for KMBG, KPIR, and KABR between 03Z-09Z.
The region will be in a warm air advection/southerly flow pattern
with 30 KT S to SW winds around 2 km AGL. No other concerns to
CIGS or VSBYs this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Serr



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