Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251540 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE
WRAPPING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS CWA.
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ACCUMULATING PCPN. SCATTERED SPRINKLE ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE LACK OF WAA...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST THIS AM...WITH TROWAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OMEGA VALUES FALL OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING...HOWEVER NAM PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LINGERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SHORT TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AM. THE STORM TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH CLOSER TO A
CLASSICAL EARLY SPRING SYSTEM...AND THANKFULLY PROFILES MOSTLY
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE VERY MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE SPLIT FLOW...SOUTHWEST CONUS WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
WAVE/TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WEAKENING
AS IT SHEARS E/NE. THE NEXT WAVE/TROF IS COMING UP FAST AND EJECTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.  NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE
IS A WEALTH OF POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DRY PERIODS DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT FOR NOW ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH PERIODS GIVEN
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK/TIMING OF ENERGY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH IS STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AT KABR/KATY BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDING OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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