Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 092318 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
518 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Surface low pressure will drop southward over Minnesota tonight,
with the CWA then becoming situated between this low and high
pressure to the west overnight. Weak high pressure settles in again
on Sunday ahead of a clipper low dropping over south central Canada.
This will keep conditions dry and mild during the near term period.
Warmer low level air will move into the region, with both 850mb and
925mb temps rising into the single digits above zero. Low level
moisture will also get shunted to the east, resulting in abundant
sunshine. This combination will result in temperatures a good 15 to
20 degrees above normal, both with lows tonight and highs Sunday
afternoon. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 20s to around
30 degrees, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 30s in west
central Minnesota to the upper 50s over the southwestern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Overall through the course of next week we can anticipate northwest
flow aloft to be the dominating factor in our weather. Interspersed
within this flow, we can pick out 4 distinct northwest flow
waves/PV anomalies. Monday, the focus area is across the
northeast. BUFKIT soundings support some mid clouds, maybe a brief
period of saturation, but then loss of ice within the dendritic
growth zone. On the backside of the front we see low level
instability in the cold advection regime, however it may no
longer be cold enough to tap into the dendritic growth zone, and
thus snow showers looks less probable. Good mixing and pressure
rises will also result in gusty winds, though well below advisory

The arctic front retreats back to the northeast into Minnesota for
Tuesday ahead of the next low. Warm advection will result in an
area of moisture, with profiles mostly supportive of light rain.
The GFS is more aggressive compared to the ECMWF, with blended
guidance providing an acceptable compromise this far out. The last
wave within the scope of this discussion looks to impact the
western lakes region more than the Dakotas precipitation-wise,
though it does help support the milder temperatures for the latter
half of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




LONG TERM...Connelly
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