Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222050
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A weak area of low pressure located over north central South
Dakota/south central North Dakota will continue to propagate
southeast through the evening into Minnesota tonight. This will be
followed by a small area of high pressure. Under this high, winds go
light and while we have mild air already in place, we also have
higher than average dewpoints. Several high resolution models
suggest fog under this environment, mainly between the James and Mo
valleys. Shouldn`t last too long as the bubble high moves east by
morning and winds become westerly.

As for Thursday, looks like a fantastic day thanks to those west
winds. Mixed temperatures from 900mb in the James valley are into
the low 60s, and 850mb are closer to 70s our west. 500 and 300mb
show intermittent saturation, so we may see some high clouds but by
and large it will be sunny. With 925/850mb temperatures 2
standard deviations above climo, and a quick perusal of records it
does indeed look like a few spots will have their warmest
thanksgiving (well, Nov 23rd anyway) on record.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The recent long wave pattern across much of the conus looks to
remain in place through most of the long term. The pattern has,
overall, favored a positive PNA patter with west conus ridge, and
east conus trof. Occasionally a chunk of energy does break down the
ridge somewhat; and one of those pieces of energy will come through
on Friday, with a stronger wave early next week. The system on
Friday will probably stir up winds more than anything, but there
remains some low chances for pcpn, mostly rain. The next system for
early next week looks a bit stronger.  But, that said, model
agreement is not particularly good. The CMC/GFS/CFS maintain a
somewhat progressive mid level trof, and thus minimize pcpn chances.
The ECMWF, on the other hand, is slower and deeper with the trof,
but has had poor run to run consistency.  So, for now will favor the
non-ECMWF solution.  Temperatures for most of the period will favor
above to much above normal, particularly highs. Cooler air should
filter south by early next work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals, though there is the
potential for some spotty fog formation tonight/Thursday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly


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