Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 022329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AFTER LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...FOG FINALLY LIFTED AND JUST
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS. IT DID HAVE AN AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISE
OVER FAULK...EDMUNDS...AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES.

FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND THE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS MORE LIKE
2 OR 3 DEGREES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DEFINITELY NOT AS SOLID
OF A SET UP AS THIS MORNING...BUT PATCHY FOG IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING
TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS STILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE EAST. MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTS IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...BUT EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST TO
REACH 100 DEGREES THURSDAY. THE HEAT INDEX DOESNT RISE MUCH ABOVE
100 IN THESE LOCATIONS EITHER...SO FOR NOW WILL FOREGO ANY TYPE OF
HEAT HEADLINE...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

THE FIRST ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY. LIKEWISE...THIS IS WHEN POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. THE WAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON
FRIDAY...AND CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE. BULK SHEAR DOES LOOKS TO BE
IN THE 30 KTS RANGE HOWEVER...SO PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THEN A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH EACH AREA OF LIFT.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A COOL DOWN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
THE COOLER AIR REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT 80S FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COOLING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

OTHER THAN PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...CONDITION WILL BE
VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK



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