Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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169
FXUS63 KABR 271134 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

The pesky cold front that has been impacting our weather over the
past 24 hours will be along our southeastern border at 12Z this
morning. The large sfc high across south central Canada will slowly
sink across the U.S./Canadian border through Thursday, before
concentrating over the Great Lakes region Thursday night through
Saturday. With northwest flow at 500MB and several small
disturbances traversing the region, it will be difficult to
completely get rid of off and on clouds later this afternoon
through Thursday. Expect highs in the mid 70s to low 80s both
today and Thursday on north to northeast winds.

The best chance of any precip will be west river Thursday-Friday, as
the sfc ridge slowly pushes across the eastern Dakotas as the next
trough organizes from MT through WY and CO. CAPE values look minimal
Thursday and Friday afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly
into the 80s cwa wide as southeast winds slowly return.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

A lot of uncertainty in the start of the extended. The pattern
remains the same, with northwest flow aloft until perhaps late
Sunday when a ridge builds over the Plains. However, there are
significant timing issues of shortwave activity, llj influence, and
the ridge shift which models have continued to slow. Superblend has
some built in uncertainty in this latest run as 20 to 30 pops Friday
night through Sunday do not correlate to the zero or near zero QPF
in its output. Kept slight chance to chance pops for much of the
extended due to the active pattern, but areas and timing will
definitely need fine tuning. By the start of the work week, an area
of sfc low pressure will work across the Dakotas, but the lower
levels will also dry out, so precip will remain isolated.

Temperatures will feature an upward trend with warmest highs on
Monday topping out near 100 across the southwestern cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Patchy MVFR stratus is over the cwa this morning. A mix of
MVFR/VFR cigs will improve to VFR by late this morning.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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