Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 142011
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
211 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

An upper low over the Great Lakes is dropping lower heights into MN
and northeast SD today. Coupled with a tight thermal advection
gradient, as well, this is translating to gusty northwest winds at
the sfc from the Sisseton Hills eastward. Winds will diminish
tonight as the low shifts farther east. Upper ridging will build in
for the remainder of the short term forecast. More transient flow is
expected at the sfc, but this will only enhance mixing.

The region should expect dry conditions and well above average
temperatures through Thursday night. Highs will climb well into the
50s by Thursday, especially in snow free areas. Once again,
Superblend was underdoing the highs. With 700mb heights around +14C
and 500mb heights in the 560s as well as westerly sfc winds, decided
to bump highs up around 10 degrees which is more in line with the
ECMWF.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

No major deviations in the extended range, which features above
average temperatures and mainly dry conditions. The lone exception to
the "all dry forecast" statement is a system Monday. Long range
deterministic guidance all have subtle variations on intensity and
track, however they do agree that this system will be mostly dry and
fast moving, with only a few hundredths QPF thanks mainly to split
flow and the persistent central CONUS ridge.

Otherwise, 850mb temperatures are above average, and range between 1
and 3 standard deviations above climo. The degree of mixing will
probably be the determining influence on temperatures as we continue
to erode the snow cover. Also of note - during the range of the
extended we see several dates where forecast and record temperatures
are fairly close to each other.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions for all terminals with a northwest wind. Cant rule
out fog formation overnight but confidence is low.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly



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