Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261436
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
836 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY
NOT HANDLED VERY EFFECTIVELY IN THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES
MODELS BUT 12Z NAM HAS AN INKLING WE MAY SEE VERY LIGHT QPF
THOUGH ABOUT NOON. AS TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER TOUCH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH RANGE WE MAY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE ONGOING FLURRIES
AND THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER AND RECENT SNOW ON TEMPERATURES.

KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SOME CAA HELPING TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FORCING HAS
DIMINISHED/SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH. DEUEL COUNTY MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING ON THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY DEVELOPING BAND THAT WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST SD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT THEIR PEAK RIGHT
NOW AND WILL LIKELY FALL SLIGHTLY OR REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE
DAY.

THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS THAT HAS A GOOD FEED OUT OF
CANADA. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OR LIFTING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY. STAYED A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC AND BROKE MOST OF
THE AREA OUT OF THE CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL
IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TRIED TO
ADJUST FORECAST FOR AREAS WITH SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIETER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
DOWN INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY)

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS AGAIN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH PLUNGING THE ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ATTM.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCKED INTO THE ARCTIC AIR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN THE LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST LOOKS DRY.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KATY AND KABR
THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING ICY RUNWAY CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL
REMAIN IFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
AFT 00Z.

IFR CIGS AT KPIR AND KMBG WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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