Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 110528 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Light snow has developed across parts of the western and southern
CWA this evening. Have adjusted pops for the remainder of the
night accordingly. No changes made to winds or temperatures at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Winter weather advisory continues this afternoon for northeastern SD
and west central MN. While snow has stopped, northwest winds of 15
to 30 mph are creating areas of blowing snow and hazardous driving
conditions in reduced visibility. Winds are expected to diminish
this evening.

A couple more shortwaves will move approach the region tonight as a
lee side low provides some additional energy across southern SD on
Wednesday. Sfc high pressure and cold air advection moving in from
the northwest will help squeeze out any moisture once again. The
first shortwave tonight will produce widespread light snow with
accumulations around an inch or less. The second wave, more closely
associated with that Rockies low will affect only south central SD
Wed afternoon with snow accumulations less than half an inch.

Temperatures will fall with the cold air advection on Wednesday.
Highs will range mainly from 0 to 5 above.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The period begins with a weak shortwave crossing the region
Wednesday night with light snow possible along and south of Highway
14. An Arctic high pressure will slowly slide across the region
Thursday through Friday. This high pressure will produce highs only
in the single digits above zero on Thursday. Lows Thursday should
fall quickly with reading in the teens below to 25 degrees below
zero. Low temperatures Thursday night was a target of opportunity,
especially in the NE CWA, or where the center of the high should be
located. As the surface high pressure moves east on Friday,
southerly winds will develop over the region and should become gusty.

Models diverge beyond Friday with the handling of a low pressure
system crossing the central Conus late this weekend into early next
week. The Canadian brings the upper level trough of low pressure
from the Baja of California on Saturday into this CWA by 0Z Monday.
The Canadian is the fastest model. While the ECMWF track is similar
to the Canadian, it`s much slower and brings the pcpn into the CWA
by 0Z Tuesday. And the GFS? It also shows the storm system, but
keeps it south of this CWA. With significant model disagreement,
will maintain a mostly dry forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

An area of snow will slide across the eastern portion of the CWA
through the early overnight hours. Additional snow development is
expected late tonight into early Wednesday morning as well. Cigs
and vsbys will fall into the MVFR category at times with the snow.
By mid to late morning Wednesday, the snow will come to an end and
conditions will become VFR across the area.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin



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