Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120529 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Forecast is in fine shape, so not planning to make any major
changes this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Expect some breezy conditions to linger across eastern South Dakota
and western Minnesota tonight, continuing to usher in warm air.
Temperatures will only fall into the 40s overnight. This will be as
the sfc low currently set up from southern Saskatchewan through
eastern MT shifts to the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border as the
cold front pushes into the western Dakotas.

This boundary will push east of the MO River by around 18Z, keeping
the northwest corner of the forecast are in the lower to mid 60s
for highs Thursday. The rest of the area should rise to around
70F. Breezy conditions will again be the theme, out of the south
well ahead of the cold front, and out of the northwest behind the
boundary. Dry weather will prevail. Relative humidity values west
of the Missouri River will fall into the low to mid 30 percent
range behind the cold front. Will not be surprised to see some mid
to upper 20 percent values as well. The cold front will slide to
the eastern third of the cwa by 00Z Friday as southwesterly flow
remains aloft with a significant trough over the western U.S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The main weather challenge in the extended will be an upper trough
swinging through over the weekend coupled with a sfc low over the
plains Fri night and Sat. The low will bring some widespread
light rain to the region. The upper trough will drag down some
CAA, pushing H85 temps into the negative single digits Celsius by
Sat evening. WAA will quickly replace the CAA on Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west. 500mb heights will continue to
rise into Wednesday.

Saturday will be the only chance for rain through the extended. High
temperatures will rebound back from the 50s Fri through Sun into the
60s for the new work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday. LLWS between
1500-2000 feet AGL is expected through the night at all




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