Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 191517 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. MCS CIRRUS ACROSS
C SD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OUT OF THAT REGION INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE
MOVING OVER THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE TRACKING OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF NON SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SPREAD
FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN A REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE LESS FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST MIXING WIND KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL YESTERDAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR
SET UP TODAY...DID NOT TREND TOWARD THE HOTTEST GUIDANCE. STILL...80S
AND 90S ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CAP WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARM MID LEVEL AIR AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH STILL LEFT THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOW LEVEL JET
INDUCED CONVECTION. MOISTURE RETURN REALLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. BY
MONDAY THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND THE 100 DEGREE HEAT
ADVISORY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS
FLIRTING WITH HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...BUT BORDERLINE. THERE WAS
DISCUSSION OF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING MONDAY NIGHT...AS
UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED FAVORABLY OVER
THIS REGION TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION. NICE MOIST
TONGUE/INSTABILITY PLUME WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AND PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO MAKE STORMS ROTATE. SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL
DEALING WITH RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD CAP
OFF THE ATMOSPHERE TO CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FLARE UP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALONG A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DESCEND ACROSS THE CWA. BEYOND THAT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY EVENING...AS THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA...LEAVING A COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
RETURN FLOW STILL LOOKS TO GET GOING ONCE AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MOISTURE PLUME PROGGED TO WORK BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SO...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START CREEPING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MODELS ARE STILL IRONING OUT THE
WRINKLES...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TUESDAY /PRE-FROPA/ SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RATHER HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS...BEFORE DRY AIR
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATE THAT WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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