Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

No big changes anticipated to the going forecast.

High pressure is sitting along the Atlantic coast with low
pressure/cold front in the plains. In between, stronger S-SW flow
has materialized across the Great Lakes and will result in a
relatively mild night. Meanwhile, deeper moisture/instability axis
stretches from Texas northward through the plains and has/is
kicking off several areas of showers/storms, closest area is just
getting into west-central Wisconsin. Increasing low level flow up
into the state will pull deeper moisture/instability axis (and
associated showers) up through the midwest and lower lakes region
by morning, but still looking to be just upstream by morning. It
will be close, but plan on keeping all areas dry through the
overnight with showers then spreading into the area after 10Z-12Z
or so Wednesday.

Otherwise, mainly clear to partly cloudy with some high clouds
drifting through. Clouds increase in earnest late.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High impact weather potential: numerous showers/t-storms on
Wednesday. Svr storms not expected.

High pressure is over the mid-atlantic states, while a cold front is
slowly pushing across the central/northern plains. In between,
breezy sw winds continue to bring warmer air into northern MI. This
airmass is presently dry-ish, with little in the way of cloud cover.
Deeper moisture is advancing ne-ward along with a warm front into
the central plains/mid-MS valley. The return of the low level jet
tonight will result in that deeper moisture accelerating ne-ward.
This increasing moisture will become evident very late tonight but
especially on Wednesday, with rapidly increasing pops. Precip trends
are the main concern.

Tonight...500mb shortwave ridge axis is building overhead this
afternoon, contributing to relatively cloud-free conditions. This
ridge will slowly work across and just east of Lake Huron tonight.
That will allow a (deamplifying) trof to reach eastern WI and sw
lower MI by morning. Sw 850mb winds of 20-25kt will persist over
northern MI. A stronger 30-40kt jet will be seen in Mizzou and
surroundings, but the nose of this jet does not get any closer than
northern IL and western IN. The associated deep moisture plume looks
to be poised just upstream by morning, but it isn`t quite here yet.
Decent agreement amongst the near-term guidance that the chance of
precip reaching MBL by 12z is in the 10-15% range. So feel
reasonably comfortable in keeping the night dry, though clouds will
certainly be on the increase in nw lower MI overnight.

Min temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday...aforementioned 500mb trof makes slow progress into
northern MI, ending up over ne lower and Lake Huron by early
evening. Surface cold front will remain well upstream, reaching far
western upper MI and central WI late. Showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will accompany the warm conveyor belt into northern MI
as the day proceeds. Instability will be limited by incoming cloud
cover and limited diurnal heating, with mlcape topping out at circa
500j/kg. Enough for some thunder, but primary instability plume (and
thus svr risk) will remain to our w and sw.

Precip will arrive in the morning near and west of TVC/CAD, and will
slowly expand ne-ward with time. For afternoon/early evening, most
of northern MI will have pops in the 70-80 range. Main exception is
the far east (APN/OSC/Drummond Isl), where only chance pops are
warranted late. Also, west of TVC/CAD, pops will stairstep down to
chance late, as they start to get behind the upper trof. QPF is
in the general vicinity of a quarter-inch.

Max temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A bit of a south to southwest
breeze, but not as much as today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Upstream low pressure will reach Lake Superior by Wednesday night
and will slowly track east thru SE Ontario on Thursday...reaching
Wrn Quebec by Thursday night. As this system slides eastward...
lift...moisture and instability ahead of the associated cold front
will be suppressed southward toward Southern Lower Michigan. The
cold front itself will still be west of our CWA Wednesday night...
and will plenty of moisture streaming northward ahead of the front
along with descent instability...likely POPs are still a good bet
for much of our CWA. POPs will gradually diminish from NW to SE late
Wednesday night and Thursday as the low and cold front pull away.
There may be some revival of convection across our SE CWA on
Thursday...especially Thursday afternoon with the cold front right
over that area during peak diurnal heating/instability.

High pressure builds back into the Western Great Lakes region
Thursday night into Friday...resulting in dry wx and a brief cool
down thanks to weak CAA behind the departing cold front. Wednesday
night will be mild and muggy with overnight lows in the 60s. Expect
another warm and humid day on Thursday with afternoon highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Temps will be noticeably cooler Thursday
night and Friday...with low temps cooling into the upper 50s and
high temps mainly in the low to mid 70s.

Extended...

The pattern over the extended period remains highly progressive with
waves passing every few days. Sunday is the first threat of rain as
a subtle shortwave passes through Northern Great Lakes. The sfc low
remains rather weak with this wave and should not produce any severe
weather. Monday through Tuesday afternoon will dry out with the flow
quickly building back up before another wave comes down from Canada.
The general pattern looks to remain active after that.

Temps will remain above average for extended forecast with highs in
the upper 70s and low 80s. There is currently no concern for severe
storms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions anticipated through tonight with some high cloud
cover drifting through. But, a wave of low pressure in the
midwest will be swinging across the region on Wednesday. This
will bring showers through the region on Wednesday along with
borderline VFR-MVFR cigs, particularly later in the morning and
through the afternoon hours. A little bit better moisture and
instability will push into the region and there may be a few
thunderstorms in northern lower Michigan. But I have not included
any TSTM`s explicitly in the TAF forecast at this juncture.

Lighter surface winds overnight, although with stronger winds aloft
there likely will be a sustained 5 to 10 knot southerly surface
wind through the night. Some marginal LLWS below 1500 feet is not
out of the question. Stronger southerly winds develop again on
Wednesday before diminishing again Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Sw-erly winds, gusty at times, will continue thru Wednesday, ahead
of an incoming cold front. Small craft advisories all ready up for
many waters into tonight. Will be assessing the need to extend
some of these headlines later this afternoon. Front will cross the
region on Thursday, with winds veering w during the day and nw
that night.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through Wednesday evening for MIZ015-020-
     025-031.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-019.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...MLR
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...JZ



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