Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT TODAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT DRIVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...COLD AND GUSTY RETURNS...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SAGINAW BAY. THE LAST OF
THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THIS AREA...WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY SETTLED IN ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN. THESE WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
OUT CLOUDS/INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. UPSTREAM...DIVING SE INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...ARE LOW LEVEL STRATO CUMULUS (TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION)
ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD POOL OF H8 AIR WITH TEMPERATURES OF
-8C. FROM MN DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...THERE WAS EVEN
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. OH...AND JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...THERE WERE FLURRIES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS OF ONTARIO...THAT WERE PRIMARILY TIED TO SFC LOW
PRESSURE/CONVERGENCE EARLIER LAST EVENING AND YESTERDAY. WE...WILL
NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SFC-850MB) WILL BE STEEP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD POOL WILL EXIT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

BAND OF MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUSH THROUGH NRN LOWER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING MUCH OF NRN
LOWER THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE TIED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. CAN
FORESEE SOME FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES FALLING OUT LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 40S/LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS WITH UPPER HALF OF THE 40S IN DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER. WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOPPING 30
MPH...IT WILL BE A COLD AND BRISK DAY OUT THE FOR SURE. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME FEWER HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SKIES
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DYING OFF WITH TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

OVERVIEW...A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE ON BY MID WEEK, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
BRIEFLY WARM UP THE GREAT LAKES, BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF COOL,
PACIFIC AIR MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

(4/23)WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO THE NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE
IN A BASE OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH, THAT IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE
EXITING SFC LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM OUT IN THE
PLAINS. WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT THERE WILL BE 24 HOURS OF VERY DRY
WEATHER. THIS WOULD BE A BIT OF A FIRE HAZARD DAY, IF IT WEREN`T FOR
THE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C, THIS WILL
MIXED DOWN IN THE SUN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THEN THE TEMPERATURES
WILL RADIATE AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
FROST WILL BE AROUND AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

(4/24)THURSDAY...THIS DAY IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK. AS THE HUDSON
BAY HIGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO THE NORTH, THE MODELS TRY AND
FORCE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION MOST OF THE MORNING. NOT SURE THAT I EVEN
BUY THE ECMWF WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY
18Z. SO LOWERED THE POPS A BIT. THE GFS IS OVER DONE WITH THE VERY
DRY 850 MB LEVEL, SIMILAR TO THE ECWMF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD E UPPER, AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN AND THE WARM FRONT WOULD FOCUS THE RAIN TOWARD E UPPER.
THEN OVERNIGHT, WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE RAIN, ALBEIT LIGHT, WILL
MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(4/25)FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN LOOKS TO LET
UP, AT LEAST IN N LOWER AS THE MAIN FOCUS IS NORTH WITH THE 500 MB
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
COLDER AIR. OVERNIGHT, THE COLDER AIR WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY MORNING. (4/26)SATURDAY...MAYBE A MIX OF SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
(4/27)SUNDAY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
HIGH (HUDSON BAY) THINK THAT THE GFS IS TOO FAST WITH PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE STATE. (4/28)MONDAY...CONTINUES DRY
DAY, BUT A LITTLE WARMER AS THE HUDSON BAY HIGH HOLDS AND THE
SUNSHINE THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY THE AIR
MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG BEING SCOURED OUT
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY END BY 06Z...SAVE FOR KAPN WHERE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL QUICKLY
BE REPLACED BY DEVELOPING MVFR TO LOW END VFR STRATUS...WHICH
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...
THOUGH WITH CEILINGS PROBABLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND BECOME
RATHER GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TOWARD
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...LAWRENCE






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