Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS STRETCHES FROM ILLINOIS/SRN WISCONSIN UP
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PRESS
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE AXIS HAS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH SEVERAL THIN LINES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS NOW WORKING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER THIN
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
ABOUT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE TODAY...WILL NOT GET CUTE
WITH TIMING/DETAILS. COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP NOTED
ADVANCING SE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...ALONG THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
SWING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIRTING THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES OF
THIS CWA. INHERITED ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR THOSE AREAS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DRY AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST WILL PROVIDE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...GENERATING A VERY
COOL NIGHT/MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BEING THE COOLEST. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES FROST IS OBVIOUSLY A THREAT AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

REST OF THE PERIOD...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. RESULTING IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HEIGHT INCREASES AND DRY AIR...WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND GIVE US A STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY NICE BEGINNING OF THE FALL
SEASON...WHICH BEGINS AT 1029PM MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY TO 75 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TUESDAY AND WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH
WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TAKING OFF ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES AT VARIOUS TIMES
HEADING INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOWER MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL
OVERSPREAD NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT
SWINGS DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL TURN
WINDS INTO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. APPEARS TO ONLY BE A SHORT BREAK
THOUGH OF NO HEADLINES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS NORTHWEST
WINDS RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LIGHTNING. MONDAY WILL BEGIN A DRY AND
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-348-
     349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...TL






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