Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 222051
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM
OF SHARP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A 160+ KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IS ALREADY PRODUCING A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PUSHING INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT UP THIS
WAY A GOOD PART OF ERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MANAGED TO CATCH A FEW
HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE ANYWAY.

TONIGHT...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING...AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND EXIT REGION FORCING...WILL SWING UP
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SWING UP INTO THE CWA SW-NE THIS EVENING. BUT THINGS
SHOULD FILL IN NICELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MY
INHERITED FORECAST...JUST SOME TIMING/SPATIAL TWEAKS TO POPS.

BIGGER QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT (ABOVE
0C) WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THAT WARM AIR. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
STARTS AND REMAINS MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT STAY MAINLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...
NOT SO CONVINCED ABOUT A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...SINCE BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL.

ALL TOLD...MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALSO A TRICKY MESS TO DEAL WITH
AND USUALLY NEVER UNFOLD AS YOU THINK THEY WILL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP (SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN)
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO JUSTIFY HOISTING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TUESDAY
REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRACK OF A SECOND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO DIFFER. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE THE FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WHICH IS A FARTHER EAST TRACK THAN PROGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS). A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH (QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH). THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS WELL AS A FARTHER EAST TRACK
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOWER TEMPERATURE INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER INDICATE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB. SO WITH THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...COULD SEE SNEAKY SURPRISE WET SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LEADING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING). MODELS HAVE HAD AN
EXTREMELY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE BOARD. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A TRACK TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALPENA (AND THROW OUT THE OUTLIER NAM). THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS TRACK WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 30S (PERHAPS NEAR 40
TUESDAY) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR A PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WITH DECENT RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL
TROUGHING PATTERN COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 20S...DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
APN...WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MAY CONTINUE TO DRAG SOME
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS INTO THAT AREA.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A BIG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR/FORCING UP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN FOR TVC/MBL. BUT PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE AT PLN/APN AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-023-027>029-032>035.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM


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