Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 151050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
650 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Continued quiet and unseasonably warm...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure remains centered across
Lower Michigan and the Eastern Great Lakes region early this
morning...maintaining mostly clear skies and dry wx. Areas of fog
and low stratus have developed across our CWA again overnight
(locally dense) temps fall into the 50s.

As we move into today...fog and low stratus will dissipate with
sunrise/diurnal mixing. Expect this will happen a bit more quickly
as compared to yesterday as southerly low level winds strengthen a
bit ahead of developing low pressure extending from Lake Superior
thru Southern Minnesota into the Central Plains. The rest of the day
will be mainly sunny and unseasonably warm again as high pressure
and dry air thru the column remain in control and upstream low
pressure and associated moisture holds to our NW. Dry wx and mainly
clear skies will continue tonight. Expect less fog development
tonight given the expectation of stronger low level winds in
response to further tightening of the low level pressure gradient.

High temps this afternoon will again warm into the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Low temps tonight will cool into the upper 50s and lower


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Above normal temps continue; Rain chances increase Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Chance of thunderstorms Sunday into
Sunday evening.

Pattern Forecast: Upper level troughing continues to dig across the
western third of the CONUS to wrap up the work week, ultimately with
downstream ridging continuing across the middle of the country. A
cold front, tied to an area of low pressure across western Ontario,
is expected to slide across northern Michigan late in the day
Sunday. Temperatures through the forecast period are expected to
remain above normal as low level thermal ridging remains centered
across the western Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Primary focus revolves around
the aforementioned cold front set to slide across northern Michigan
on Sunday, but not before well above normal temperatures prevail
Saturday. Increasing southerly flow will help to push high
temperatures into the 80s across a majority of the area Saturday
afternoon...some 5-15 degrees above normal.

Rather narrow enhanced ribbon of moisture and forcing are expected
along and just ahead of Sunday`s cold front, which should keep the
most numerous showers confined to the afternoon hours associated
with FROPA. Not overly enthusiastic about thunder chances Sunday
afternoon; however, guidance continues to suggest upwards of 300-400
J/kg of MLCAPE...certainly enough to warrant the mention of at least
a chance of thunder. Threat for showers and increased cloud cover
should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Saturday,
especially across western areas, although the potential for another
very warm day exists as you head toward Saginaw Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Sunday`s cold front continues to progress east-southeast Sunday
evening bringing any lingering scattered shower activity to an end.
Looks like rain chances remain at bay through Tuesday; however,
confidence diminishes greatly toward the middle of next week as
guidance continues to struggle with the overall pattern evolution.
It certainly looks like more frequent precip chances may present
themselves from time to time, but nothing set it stone at this


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Residual areas of fog/low stratus will quickly dissipate with
sunrise early this way to solid VFR conditions
for the rest of the day and tonight as high pressure remains in
control. Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts today...
with a few higher gusts possible.


Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Saturday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Dry wx...mainly clear skies
and unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region
thru Saturday night.




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