Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 170827
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...Light snow this afternoon and evening...

High impact weather potential: Up to an inch or so of snow. So
not really.

High pressure is strung out e-w across the southern lakes and
northern OH Valley. Somewhat milder air is slowly pushing back
into the region over top of the high. Increasing warm/moist
advection aloft will eventually generate some spotty light snow,
mainly this afternoon and evening.

Things are quiet across northern MI presently, with no precip and
just some thin cirrus for clouds. Thicker mid/high clouds are
seen w of Lake MI, where warm/moisture advection is more
prominent. This is particularly the case in advance of a shortwave
digging into MN early this morning. This wave swings across
northern MI this evening, with best forcing and moisture for
ascent along and just ahead of it. Still, this will be an
underwhelming snow event, with moisture and forcing not at all
impressive.

Clouds will increase and thicken this morning, and anticipate mostly
cloudy conditions across all of northern MI by late morning. By
then, there`s a chance of some light snow west of I-75 in eastern
upper MI, as isentropic ascent aloft works to overcome initially dry
air below 10k ft. Chancy pops will gradually expand east across the
forecast area by early evening. Likely pops arrive in nw lower and
eastern upper MI late in the afternoon, and try to push into n
central lower MI this evening. Pops then dwindle abruptly, with low
chances for lake effect snow showers in the wnw-flow snowbelts of
both peninsulas overnight, as drying takes place above the inversion.

Snow totals will be around an inch in eastern upper MI, and in the
nw lower MI coastal counties. Accums dwindle to the east, with a
half inch or less in ne lower.

Max temps today mainly 30-35f. Min temps tonight in the lower teens
(western Chip/Mack Cos) to lower 20s (Gladwin/Standish as well as
Leland to MBL).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...A Mixed Bag to Start the Week...

High Impact Weather Potential...The accumulating snow in E Upper may
cause problems for sunday night into Monday. However, the mix
precipitation may period of icing Monday into Tuesday. While not
warning criteria, it may approach advisory levels.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure is to the south of the
region, in the Ohio Valley, with the ridge sticking into the Upper
Great Lakes. This moves to the east and is out of the forecast area,
by noon. This allows the next system, which at 18z/Sun is on the
SD/MN border with warm front stretched out across Michigan. The
isentropic upglide will be strong with the system and coupled with
the 80-90 kt 500 mb jet, moving through Upper Michigan and Lake
Superior, will produce snow across portions of E Upper. Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning. There is a brief break as the some
sfc ridging pushes through the region, then the messy weather
starts...which will be mixed precipitation, however, it looks like
it turns to all rain by noon as temperatures warm through the day.
Looking at the profiles in the UP, there could be some freezing
drizzle during Monday afternoon as the sfc temperatures sit around
or under freezing, but there is some drying above the inversion,
where the best moisture is. This continues to be the case through a
portion of the night with the chance of mixed precipitation, and
with N Lower changing to mixed precipitation from rain through the
night.

Primary Forecast concerns...WPC has N lower in the cross hairs for a
few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain, with snow in the UP. Will
have to watch the models. There is still uncertainty with the track
as the ECMWF has the sfc low track further north which would push
the warmer air north, and thus less FZRA. Farther south, during the
same time, the rain could be heavy at times at least with the GFS as
the track would put some of the best isentropic lift along and south
of M-55. WPC has their slight risk for rain almost to Harrisville.
Again, the ECMWF is has a different track for this, and less QPF. so
will keep an eye on this. Confidence is low for this turning out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...Roller Coaster Temperatures...

Extended (Tuesday through Friday)...Temperatures through the rest of
the week will be on either side of freezing. It looks like there
will be a considerable dry period from Wednesday night through
Friday. So the overall trend will be for the most part, above normal
temperature wise and probably below normal for precipitation.
However, with us around freezing, will expect that p-type could be
an issue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1144 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

A ridge of high pressure is starting to exit east, making way for
a warm front to cross overnight, which will bring increasing
higher level clouds. Clouds thicken up and lower through Saturday,
ahead of a cold front that is likely to result in a relatively
brief period of snow in the afternoon and evening for mainly the
NW lower airports, with MVFR CIGS and reduced VSBYS. Snowfall
rates are expected to be light, with snowfall amounts an inch or
less.

Winds will increase out of the SW just above the sfc overnight for
some low end LLWS, for mainly PLN. These winds will lead to some
gusty conditions Saturday, before turning out of the west and NW
Saturday night behind the cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD



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