000
FXUS63 KABR 142030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLATED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE REALLY BEEN CHANGING THINGS UP TODAY SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN SD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDES IN THE EAST. THIS MEANS DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. BACKED OFF ON POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST AS A RESULT...BUT COULD HAVE TAPERED OFF EVEN MORE IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING ACCURATE. THAT PARTICULAR MODEL WOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP COMPLETELY AWAY FROM THE COTEAU
EASTWARD...WITH JUST MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE
JAMES VALLEY. FOR NOW WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR POPS. THE MODEL
SHIFT ALSO PUTS PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING INTO QUESTION. STILL
ENDED WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
CWA.

AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SOME LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN. TEMPS DO SEEM TO
HAVE A DIURNAL BENT TO THEM SO THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THEN
SNOW MAY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IF THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY LOOKS DRIER
WITH COOLER TEMPS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST.





.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN ISSUE WE ARE LOOKING AT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z EC REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A MORE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM...BRINGING MORE
TROWAL TYPE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA WHEREAS THE GFS AND GEM ARE A
BIT QUICKER AND WEAKER. GENERALLY DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
ALLBLEND POPS...BUT IF THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION STARTS TO SHOW UP IN
THE OTHER EXTENDED MODELS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW
SCENARIO TO DEAL WITH AS WELL WITH WARM AIR IN THE REGION
INITIALLY BEFORE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THERE ARE SIGNS OF
MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS AFFECTING KABR AND KATY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR. BY
THIS EVENING ITS A BIT MORE UNCLEAR IF THESE CIGS EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT OR HANG AROUND UNTIL THE LOWER/THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. BY MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT CIGS IN LOW END VFR OR MVFR ALONG WITH
-SN NORTH AND EAST...WITH -RASN NEAR KPIR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN