Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230411 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1111 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN CWA. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT SINCE SOME PARTS OF THE MO VALLEY ARE
SATURATED IT WONT TAKE AS MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE ISSUES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KATY. HOWEVER MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT.
ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO
FOG. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-
     HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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