Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 242020
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED BETWEEN KPIR/KMBG WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING JUST EAST OF KPIR/K9V9
WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MUCH OF THIS
CWA IS SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LAPS ANALYSIS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS CURRENTLY SEEING SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 - 600 J/KG. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN
TOO. BASED ON HI-RES MODELS...CAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND
THE WATERTOWN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE
CAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 300 J/KG. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WANES
AFTER 6Z MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SHEAR OUT WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW WEAKER WAVES WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES...WITH JUST SOME
MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TO WESTERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. WILL THEN JUST SEE SOME OFF AND ON
CHANCES AS THE LOW MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTH OF
THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND IN THE 50S
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE THE RAIN MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO IFR/MVFR CIGS BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.