000
FXUS63 KABR 041024
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
424 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LIGHT SNOW HAS BLANKETED THE AREA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER BANDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. NOT EXPECTING HUGE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR
SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...AND POSSIBLY TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL INCHES ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL IS INDICATING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. FOR AREAS WHERE FALLING SNOW COMBINES WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED. DIDNT WANT TO
DOWNGRADE HEADLINES WHEN THE WORST WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE PERCEIVED THIS AFTERNOON...SO LEFT HEADLINES INTACT. THE
DAY SHIFT CAN GET A FEW GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND ADJUST HEADLINES
AS NECESSARY.

AFTER SNOWFALL ENDS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BECOME THE NEXT
CONCERN. WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES IN
THE UPCOMING DAYS. TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING THE NORTHERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW TWENTY FIVE
BELOW...AND THEN BY FRIDAY MORNING IT APPEARS THE ENTIRE CWA WILL
DROP INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AM...ALLOWING
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
AND THUS VERY LOW TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THAT A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL ADVECT CIRRUS IN THE
AREA...WHICH MAY TEMPER THE DROP OFF.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
LOW CHANCE FOR POPS...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITHIN
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS THAT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
STOP JUST SHORT OF THE CWA BEFORE EVAPORATING AND OUTRUNNING
UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWING THE SAME PROGRESSION...CENTERING OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AM...FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RIDICULOUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES OVER
THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL END THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY. WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
CAA AND A GOOD MIXING LAYER...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-
     HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN