Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272045
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 MB ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
THERE IS SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MOST DEWPOINT READINGS ACROSS THIS CWA ARE
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S...AND TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.  THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS ML CAPE VALUES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
RANGES FROM 30 TO 40 KTS. WEAKER 0-1 KM SHEAR...WHICH IS LESS THAN
15 KTS. CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS NOW HAVING AN INFLUENCE.

WHILE THE BEST SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEAST...HELPING TO INITIALIZE STORMS OVER OUR CWA...LIKELY IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS TO BE OVER OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
TONIGHT. INGREDIENTS ARE DEFINITELY IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR...AND MODELS
STILL SHOWING LCLS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY
EXPECTED...A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THOUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHEN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT...AND A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE AGAIN
PROGGED TO BE IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED.
THIS MEANS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSTORMS. STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS AS MODELS ARE
WAFFLING A BIT ON BEST TIMING CHANCES FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE DURING ANY HEAVIER RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING END OF A FRONT/TROUGH AROUND
20Z NEAR KMBG AND TREK EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF KABR BUT THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF KATY. STILL...STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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