Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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993
FXUS63 KABR 180009 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THE GAP IN PRECIP
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
SD AND THE CAA SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SD. PRECIP INTENSITY SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. ADDED TRAVERSE/BIG STONE
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME. SINCE
TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S..IN FACT SOME SITES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S..ADDED A FREEZE
WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES EASTWARD INTO THE
JAMES VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES OF
12MB/6 HOURS ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE RESULT IS
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MORE OR LESS THE WHOLE CWA. AS THE PRESSURE
BUBBLE MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL WEAKEN A TAD...BEFORE BETTER
MIXING DEVELOPS WITH SUNRISE MONDAY AM. FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...READINGS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GETTING BETTER
ALIGNED WITH 850MB READINGS FALLING INTO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE BY 06Z
TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MONDAY THANKS TO STRATO CU
DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALSO RESULTING IN SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE OF THE
RAIN/SNOW VARIETY.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY...A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH SO THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL DECOUPLE...LEADING TO
READINGS IN THE 20S. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET WITH WIND HEADLINES
OVERHEAD AND FREEZE HEADLINES TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THERE IS STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES /HIGHLIGHT THE I-90
CORRIDOR/ ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONE IMPULSE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED IS
DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ONE OR MORE SMALLER/TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK
TO THIS CWA. PER 925HPA AND 850HAP THERMAL PROGS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TROWAL PRECIP FROM THE COLD CORE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ND THIS
EVENING WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTER CAA SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SD THAT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
IF PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND COUPLES WITH THE COLDER
AIR...KMBG COULD SEE SOME SNOW. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON END TIME OF PRECIP. MVFR CIGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
     MONDAY FOR SDZ003>006-009-010.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ MONDAY FOR SDZ003>006-
     009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



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