Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172045
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

The low clouds will move out of the east into this evening as breezy
northwest winds decrease and become light overnight with surface
high pressure building into the region. With the clear skies and
light winds, we should have cool overnight lows across the east over
the snow cover. Mid teens are expected for lows Saturday morning in
the east. The surface high pressure area builds east on Saturday as
south winds increase through the day behind it bringing in warmer
air. With abundant sunshine across the region, temperatures will be
warming up through the day with lower 60s southwest. The left over
snow cover across the east will still have an influence on afternoon
highs with mainly 40s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Sunday: Main focus for the day will be the mild temperatures and
potential for fire weather conditions. Return flow earlier that day
will bring 850mb temperatures to around +16C, while a weak surface
trough moves across the CWA. Northwest flow on the backside will aid
in mixing before cooler mid level temperatures set in. Additionally,
NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate very dry air in the wake of the trough
passage, particularly at 850mb where dewpoints reside in the -5C and
-9C range. A small pressure bubble and locally tight gradient will
enhance mixing up to this level, although NAM BUFKIT mixed winds
fall short of Red Flag conditions. Did not deviate from previous
wind/temperature forecast - however surface dewpoints and afternoon
RH% values have been lowered from blended guidance.

Monday-Tuesday: An upper trough moves across southern Canada. We
will mostly see cold advection. Models generate some QPF but overall
should be mostly dry.

Wednesday: Upper ridge axis will move overhead, with 700mb warm
advection responsible for a band of weak mid level ascent. steep
lapse rates above the inversion could also support some elevated
convection.

Thursday-Friday: Models continue to generate a central plains spring
storm system. Good model continuity but given time to arrival will
stick with blended guidance with this feature. Thermally most of the
area will be on the rain side of profiles however on the northern
extreme and back side there may be a change-over. Still lots of time
to hash out the details though.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

MVFR/low VFR clouds will move across the region into the early
evening hours as strong northwest winds at 20 to 25 knots with gusts
to 30 to 35 knots continue. The winds will fall off this evening
along with skies clearing as surface high pressure builds in.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr



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