Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 140523 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1123 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Temperatures are easily the main challenge over the next 24 to 36
hrs. So far today it`s been a struggle for the mercury to reach the
forecasted highs, particularly where winds have been pretty light.
However, the boundary layer gets even milder as we head into
Wednesday. The question then becomes how efficient will mixing be
with relatively innocuous ll winds.  And, how much will resident snow
cover potentially affect temperatures, especially over areas from
KPIR to KHON, and around KATY.  These areas have the most snow on
the ground currently.  After looking at soundings and various temp
guidance, have settled on the in-house blend, but with some
relatively small changes. Lowered temps a notch over the snowfield,
but raised them a touch over the downslope areas of northeast South
Dakota, and adjacent west central Minnesota. This region has the
least amount of snow across the ABR CWA. The wind will be a bit
gusty overnight to the lee of the Sisseton Hills/Coteau, but with
little snow around, not expecting any significant blowing snow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Thursday: the upper pattern is dominated by split flow, but a weak
PV anomaly, associated with the right entrance region of the northern
stream will pass across the Dakotas. This doesn`t quite phase with
the southern stream jet, but is close on a regional scale. The
result could be some small scale vertical development generating a
localized inch or so. Limiting factors less due to the transitory
nature of the feature. Cold advection means stalled or falling
temperatures after the morning hours.

Friday: 1038mb high center will move across western/central South
Dakota, with ideal radiational conditions over any newly added snow
cover, however after tomorrows expected thaw/melt of what limited
snow cover is currently in place, temperatures crashing could be
fairly localized. Eastern counties will also remain in northwest to
west low level flow Friday morning. During the day as the high moves
into eastern Nebraska, winds become more southerly oriented and
temperatures will recover.

Weekend/Next Week - we see an active pattern, but with just a few
weak systems through mid week. These will be accompanied by ups and
downs in temperatures as these system move the Arctic front back and
forth across the area. Confidence is low under this regime.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period.



LONG TERM...Connelly
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