Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
741 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA. SOME OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL IGNORE THE COOLER
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE AND USE THE WARMER GUIDANCE OF THE ECMWF.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WHILE LLM WILL BE RATHER LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME UVM
OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH COULD PRODUCE INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY COULD EITHER BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
EVENT...OR SCT/OCL FLURRIES. WILL GO WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
LACK DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
A BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER THE GEM MODELS IS FURTHER
EAST AND SHOWS THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE MODELS ALL AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE US. THE US REMAINS
UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TROUGH/
CIRCULATION DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US LATER IN THE PERIOD. OUR
REGION REMAINS MAINLY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL
THICKNESSES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA BUILDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. EXPECT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
RISE SLOWLY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY WILL RISE TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LONG TERM ALSO LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY KICK OUT AND BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING
...STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN BRINGING WINDY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO OVER 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AND COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE
...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN LATE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR





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