Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING APPROACHES...HOWEVER THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER OUR CWA
IS PRETTY DRY. OBSERVED SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GREATER
THAN 20 DEGREES...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT IT IS
GOING TO BE MAINLY AFTER 06Z BEFORE THE COLUMN SATURATES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THEREFORE...DELAYED POPS BY AT LEAST 3 HOURS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A LOW LEVEL JET DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT
MINIMAL CAPE...SO ONLY GENERAL THUNDER IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BEYOND TUESDAY ITS LOOKING WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S...TO THE UPPER 80S.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEY ALL SUPPORT THE SIMILAR IDEA
WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CIGS
MAY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE PRECIPITATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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