Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041740
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL SPIN/SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL BE ABLE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE RADAR COVERAGE.
ALTHOUGH WITH HIGH BASES...EXPECT AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX COVERAGE THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE SPEED AT WHICH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AIDED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE PROPAGATING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA. MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NE CORNER OF OUR CWA AND POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY A LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING...AND ALONG WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORM ACTIVITY. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA HOWEVER.

VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 00Z
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS A 40+ KT LLJ DEVELOPS
DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
1.75 INCHES... ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO
HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
AS WELL. THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR...AND MORE STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE 00Z MODELS ALL BASICALLY CONTINUE THE TREND NOTED BY YESTERDAY`S
DAY-SHIFT. SECONDARY FROPA TIMING WAS SPED UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE
00Z MODELS...PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BASICALLY DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD. SUPERBLEND POPS KEPT ALL THE PRECIP CHANCES
RELEGATED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SECONDARY FROPA/...WITH A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY AND
COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH...WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TAFS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...LUECK
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY


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