Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 140922
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF BROWN/SPINK COUNTY...ALTHOUGH BISMARCK RADAR INDICATING AN AREA
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND SNOWFALL.
THUS...ANTICIPATE CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MOST OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE
VERIFIED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERTOP
MILD AIR...AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE...WE MAY SEE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS...SO ADDED SOME LIGHT POPS/QPF FOR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...MILDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON LOW LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN -2 AND +3C BY
THIS EVENING. FRESH SNOW AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SUNSHINE MAY INHIBIT
WARMING SOMEWHAT DESPITE FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS. READINGS WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SEE EVEN MILDER READINGS AT
925MB...BETWEEN 0 AND +5C. LATE MONDAY ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
WILL ASSIST IN MIXING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE ARE RIGHT ON THE RAIN SNOW LINE.
THE SREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURING IS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES.  PERIODS STARTS
OFF WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...A STRONG WAVE MOVES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND SHOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND FLATTENS IT.  SOME WEAK ENERGY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS MILD AIR MASS GETS
PULLED OFF THE HIGH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES AT
THAT TIME WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON PROGGED H925 AND H85
TEMPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW EVENT IS ONGOING. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT
KMBG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KPIR AND KATY MAY BOUNCE IN AND OUT
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THEN KPIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WHILE KATY BEGINS TO TANK. KATY AND KABR SHOULD
REMAIN DOWN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING.
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD
BE WORKING INTO THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ003>010-015>018-021-033>037-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ011-019-020-022-
     023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.