Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290526 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Showers/storms far southwest in the CWA earlier have moved south
with another isolated storm in northwest SD close to our western
CWA. Think it will remain west of our region. Thus, the night
should be mostly clear with light winds and lows in the 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Some weak shortwaves will traverse the region this evening. A 25 kt
LLJ will also set up along and west of the Missouri River ahead
of a lee side low. However, limited moisture near the sfc...some
areas still have dew points in the 50s..will keep any convection
isolated in nature, if it manages to initiate at all. Left pops in
this afternoon, but removed them this evening as a result of the
loss of diurnal heating. Daytime Saturday will see weaker dynamics
in play as the lee side low shifts and weakens. Other than
diurnal heating there is not much forcing to speak of, but kept in
some isolated pops out west after 21z. Sfc high pressure will
continue to dominate across the east on Saturday, as well.

Temperatures are expected to be right around average for late July.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

There will still be some weak to moderate instability in place
Saturday evening as a mid-level impulse moves southeast through the
region. Isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms may still be
ongoing after 00Z Sunday and persisting through the evening hours.
The lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates is what will likely keep a
larger threat for severe storms at a minimum. Nonetheless, a threat
for a few strong to marginally severe storms will persist into
Saturday evening.

Next chance for precipitation will be Monday night as a frontal
boundary drops south through the region. But other than that, there
is not much to hang your hat on in regards to meaningful chances for
rainfall. Weak boundaries along with subtle impulses in the upper
level flow that are hard to time at this point all lead to small
chances POPs here and there throughout the forecast.

As for temperatures, things look rather typical for this time of
year with readings generally in the 80s and 90s for daytime highs.
The warmest conditions will be felt across central SD.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Saturday.




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