Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Pcpn chances are the main challenge in the short range. Tonight
should again prove tranquil as the cu/sc and spkls over the
northeast cwa gradually come to an end with loss of diabatic
heating. Out west a couple of mid level systems are expected to
track east toward the forecast area. Most models are fairly
aggressive in developing a pcpn shield out west early Friday, and
then moving it east during the day. Cape progs suggest a mix of rain
and thunder with temperatures remaining relatively cool out west
where more clouds and pcpn will exist. The rain chances gradually
shift east Friday night and Saturday as main p/v anomaly moves
across the region. Lingering showers are possible Saturday night
otherwise conditions should begin to dry out. Temperatures overall
during the period will favor below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with nearly zonal flow
with warm air advecting into the region. The upper level flow
pattern will become southwesterly over the region as a west coast
trough deepens by the middle of next week. Moisture will advect into
the region with the southwesterly flow with scattered thunderstorms
possible. Temperatures through the period will average above normal
with highs in the 80s to the lower 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Low end VFR cigs can be expected for all terminals through the
valid TAF period. However periods of MVFR cigs are possible for
KATY. Showers could impact the terminals of KPIR and KMBG after
12Z Friday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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