Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

GOING FORECAST IS WORKING OUT OKAY AT THE MOMENT. NO PLANS TO
CHANGE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.
TRYING TO FORECAST/TIME THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED FORM OF
PCPN...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR OBS SHOW SHIELD OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA..WITH KABR NOW REPORTING R-. LAPS DATA INDICATES THAT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WORKING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH 18Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. PCPN SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E RIDGES
WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF CLOSED 500HPA LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF CWA. ALSO...WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO WND
ADVRY CRITERIA...BUT ARE SETTLING BACK DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO BE JUST BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

SYSTEM MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT APPROACH UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED
AREAS...IE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TACKLE
THAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE REMOVED MINOR POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER...AND ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD BASED ON COND
PRESSURE DEFS ON THE NAM/GFS THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS ARE CLOSER ON TIMING WITH WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL
CONTENT PAINTING MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF CWA...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LOWS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE WITHIN THAT LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TEMP
RANGE...SO HAVE INSERTED MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR THE
06-12Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

AGAIN..SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN FRONT PUSHING EAST.
LATEST EC HAS A 1035MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRIDAY...SO EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES...NOT MUCH TEMP RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER
SEASON. WITH A STRONG 1030S HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST THU NIGHT
H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ON UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST
CENTRAL MN SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S.
HOWEVER THE LOW END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS EXITING AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. WINDS
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL
RETREAT NORTH INTO ND AND CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RW/SW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPREADING MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THE CLOUD
COVER WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
SHOWING UP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THEREFORE...THE KPIR AND KMBG
TAF FORECASTS TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA....AND HELD MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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