Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 140116 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
816 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Forecast in good shape and no major changes planned this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A short wave trough over the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon
will be making its way southeast and then east across the Northern
Plains through Saturday night. For tonight, southeast winds behind
the exiting surface high pressure area along with falling pressures
out west will bring moisture and low clouds into the region late
tonight and Saturday. Therefore, with these low clouds along with
mid level clouds developing from southwest to northeast with the
short wave trough, skies will become cloudy later tonight and
Saturday. With deep layer forcing with the advancing short wave
trough, showers will spread in from the southwest later tonight and
expand through Saturday. Have adjusted the pops through Saturday.
The models then show the trough and showers ending quickly Saturday
night during the evening across the east. Rainfall amounts from a
quarter to half inch are expected. With the clouds and rain,
Saturday will be a cool day across the CWA in the upper 40s and
lower 50s. A cold front moving through on Saturday will also bring
some breezy northwest winds into the early evening hours. The skies
will clear quickly from west to east on Saturday night as winds fall
off. Saturday night will also be cold with lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s as winds become light.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

We will see one departing shortwave with a secondary wave close
behind Sunday, but this will translate into mainly mid level cloud
cover that will skirt northeast counties. BUFKIT mixed winds during
the day top out around 30kts with mixing to around 800mb, though at
the same time we will be experiencing warm advection and only around
a 5mb north to south gradient, so we probably wont be mixing these
winds efficiently and as such it will be more of a breezy day. 850mb
temperatures only top out around +3 to +6C so not a terribly warm
one either with highs around 60, which is close to what mixing to
800mb will accomplish.

500mb flow will be dominated by a weak ridge to our west with a
series of waves that will move across Canada. This means dry
conditions with a series of warm surges periodically separated by
weak cold frontal passages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through tonight. However, as rain
moves in from the south on Saturday, mvfr cigs/vsbys are expected
to develop across most of the area.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK



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