000
FXUS63 KABR 280852
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
352 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

With the upper wave essentially overhead, the majority of convection
has moved away from the CWA with only a few isolated cells lingering
overhead. The low level jet and strong southerly flow persists along
and east of the James valley, while to the west, northwest winds
have developed out ahead of weak high pressure. NAM BUFKIT profiles
remain marginally unstable across the east this morning, so will
maintain some low end pops, while to the west, shortwave ridging
will stabilize the atmosphere.

There will be two more 500mb waves of note during the short term
period, with one moving in tonight west river and into
central/northeast South Dakota Thursday. MLCAPE values are only on
the order of a few hundred j/kg, with mainly skinny CAPE within NAM
BUFKIT profiles. This weakly unstable atmosphere will provide the
environment for thunderstorms, but unlikely to produce any severe
weather, though it is important to note that 0-6km shear is close to
50kts with a 60-70kt jet streak moving overhead.

The last wave will round the upper low that moves across southern
Canada Friday, with again weak/skinny CAPE and less than 20kts of
wind across most of the profile.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

An upper level shortwave will slide east of the region Friday night,
with northwest flow then setting up through the day Monday before
ridging builds over the Northern Plains. After the possibility of a
few lingering showers and thunderstorms on the back side of an
exiting low pressure system Friday night, surface high pressure will
dominate the weather pattern through the day Sunday. May see more
shower and thunderstorm development late Sunday afternoon into early
Monday as low pressure tracks across the Central Plains, though best
chances will be south of the CWA. High pressure and dry conditions
return Monday afternoon through the end of the period.

Below normal high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Saturday
and Sunday will give way to a warming trend, with highs in the 80s
Monday and in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday.  Overnight lows will
be in the 50s early in the period, and in the 60s during the latter
half of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the far northeastern CWA
through the early to mid overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through the
day Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin