000
FXUS63 KABR 061158 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
558 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUMMIT AREA WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE BEEN 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW. PEEVER HAS BEEN KEPT IN CHECK THUS FAR WITH SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY LESS. AS WAS NOTED BEFORE...NOT A TRUE DOWNSLOPE WIND
EVENT AS 925 MB WIND DIRECTION NOT QUITE IDEAL...BUT STILL SEEING
FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS NONETHELESS. IN GENERAL ACROSS THE EAST...WINDS
ARE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOKING AT ALL AVAILABLE WEB
CAMS ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS BLOWING SNOW...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR ROAD SURFACES AS VSBY SEEMS TO BE OK
FROM WHAT CAN BE SEEN. SUMMIT DOES LOOK A BIT NASTY WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER VSBY BUT PROBABLY A MORE ISOLATED INCIDENT. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VBSY THROUGH 15Z. CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY FAIRLY DICEY IN
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL...THINGS APPEAR TO BE OK AT THIS TIME TO FORE
GO ANY ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOUGH FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS THAT MAY SHOW UP VIA WEB CAMS OR
ROAD REPORTS.

CHANGING GEARS TO LATER TODAY...THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BRIEF WARM UP
WILL OCCUR AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO WEST OF THE JAMES
WITHIN NARROW THERMAL RIDGE THAT SLIDES ACROSS. HAVE TAKEN A FEW
DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGH FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND THE EXPECTED FILTERED SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SATURATED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A RETURN TO REALITY FOR FRIDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WE
HAVE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO SO MANY TIMES THIS WINTER...BUT STILL
PRETTY COLD NONETHELESS AS A STIFF NORTH BREEZE WILL ALSO BE
BLOWING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE THE START OF THE MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. THIS HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG
WARM AIR RAMPING UP. WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPS ALOFT...AND THUS THE WARMEST TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE COOL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RETREATING HIGH...SO EXPECTING A RATHER WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
FORECAST TEMPS ALOFT ON SATURDAY...FEEL THE WESTERN CWA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM EVEN MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...ASSUMING WE
CAN MELT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW OUT THAT WAY TODAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE 00Z MODELS WERE STILL LATCHING ON TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO
MAINLY AFFECT THE CWA WITH UNTAPPED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE DRY AT
THE MOMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL SEEING A PERIOD OF RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARMTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH BRINGING
COOLER AIR BACK TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. THEN...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BEGINS TO WORK
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AT KABR AND KATY...CREATING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
PHENOMENA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
AT OR AFTER 00Z...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE 4 TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN