000
FXUS63 KABR 110526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM BISMARCK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. THE WAVE WILL
EXIT THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GET A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT FORECAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.
ONCE AGAIN BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST BASED ON LATEST PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH IN GUIDANCE AND
THE STRONGER WINDS OUT WEST THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ALMOST CALM TOWARD MORNING IN THE
WEST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH A BRIEF WARM UP
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE 20S
ON THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ONE AT THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK...AND THE OTHER TO
START OUT THE NEXT. MODELS HINT AT A POCKET OF STRATUS SINKING
SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FIST
CLIPPER...WITH SOMETHING SIMILAR HAPPENING SUNDAY...SO THERE ARE
REALLY 4 CHANCES FOR GENERALLY LOW POPS. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -7 AND -22C FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
RESPECTIVELY...OR ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UNCERTAIN
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD IN TIME FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TO SET UP WITHIN THE CWA...OR WILL WE
MAINTAIN A WEAK NORTH WIND/COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP US MIXED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-
     HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN