Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 311205 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
705 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REGIONAL FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN TANDEM WITH SURFACE
OBS AND AREA WEB-CAMS CONFIRMS THAT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG
1040HPA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG MENTION INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS OF 8Z...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WITH A FEW OBS SHOWING GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. BASED ON GFS BUFFER SOUNDING AT
KLEM AND THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AT KPHP...WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES. WINDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS OF 40 PLUS KNOTS OCCURRING TONIGHT. THE
THERMAL INVERSION TONIGHT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG SO IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE 925 MB WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA. TEMPS AT 850 MB WARM
TO THE MID TEENS...WHICH IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD UNFOLDS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
ENERGY WITHIN AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT STILL APPEARS TO BE
LACKING AT THE MOMENT TO GET PRECIP GOING OVER THIS CWA IS LIFT
AND FOCUSED FORCING OVER THIS CWA. SUPERBLEND POPS BASICALLY
PAINTS PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SHIFTS POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
SO...THE TREND FOR...BASICALLY...A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES.

THE ONLY OTHER TIDBIT OF FORECAST THOUGHT TO PASS ALONG REVOLVES
AROUND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A DIRTY RIDGE
LOOK-AND-FEEL MID-WEEK...925HPA THERMAL PROGS ARE FORECAST TO
STRATIFY INTO A RATHER PRONOUNCED SW TO NE GRADIENT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA COULD BE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON DAYS 6 AND 7
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SO...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE SETTING UP FOR A WHILE
NEXT WEEK.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...LIKELY OFF THE MISSOURI
RIVER/LAKES. THIS SUB-VFR CONDITION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME SUNSHINE/MIXING
SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS OUT OVER THE
KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...AT THIS TIME VFR FLYING WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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