Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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949
FXUS63 KABR 290856
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

The upper high, and surface high essentially remain in place for the
entirety of the short term. The chance for convection comes from
daytime heating and a slight uptick in dewpoints associated with
weak southerly flow. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings support skinny
CAPE with little shear, so the storm mode is weak pulse
convection and thus the main threat is for localized microburst
winds. The focus area for deterministic guidance and a majority of
CAMS is along the Missouri valley.

As we transition into the evening, There is a subtle upper trough
that will move across mainly North Dakota. A few CAMS support
convection with this feature developing or drifting into the area.
Will maintain a slight chance for storms through the early overnight
hours.

Soundings are similar for Sunday so will maintain a 20 percent
chance for storms in the afternoon period.

Otherwise temperatures appear to continue to run fairly close to
normal.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

The region will be between ridging over the western half of the
country and a trough over the east through much of the long term
period. A few shortwaves will slide across the region, but at this
time, none of them look to be significant.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will slowly track southward
Monday night through Tuesday night, possibly becoming the focus for
shower and thunderstorm activity. May see some increase in
instability on Tuesday, but lack of shear will likely limit severe
potential. High pressure then drops out of Canada and looks to be
the dominant feature during the latter half of the period, keeping
conditions dry.

Temperatures will be right around normal for the most part, with
highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday and Thursday may be just a
bit below normal, with some areas across the east only reaching the
mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s will be
common.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Saturday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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