Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241203 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
703 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WE
LOSE THE BEST LIFT...HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME OF THE
HI RES MODELS EVEN SHOW ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING UP
FURTHER WEST...SO MAY BE A MENTION THAT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED
WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL. NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN ANY FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THE RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES AS PLANNED.

RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE LESS CUT AND DRY. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS C ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 20 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LATEST LONG TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO. A STRONG
TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE MID
LEVEL PATTERN TURNS SOMEWHAT BLOCKY...WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z RUNS AND
PREVIOUS RUNS IS THAT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND WEST
WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT BETTER LLM RETURN
INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS ALSO RESULTS
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES UPWARDS OF 1K J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE SD.
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SVR HAS
INCREASED A BIT. ALSO FORESEE CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES GIVEN DETAIL DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS. I ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND KATY THIS MORNING AS FRONT MOVES
EAST. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
AND THE RAIN WILL END. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MVFR FOG AT KABR EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND HOOK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE...AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DEAD DRY FUELS...COULD RESULT
IN RAPID AND INTENSE GRASSLAND FIRES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI
     COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

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