000
FXUS63 KABR 111731 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

NO REAL NOTEWORTHY CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST
UPDATE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AS OF 8Z...GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER FAR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THANKS TO A 40 TO 50 KNOT LLJ.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THIS CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THAT SAID...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS CWA DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL INTERACT WITH A 30-40 KNOT LLJ TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING
PCPN REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS CWA.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN INVADING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THUNDERSTORMS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A VERY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BACK INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IT WILL USHER IN. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ON MONDAY. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND
UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. BY
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN WHEN A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SURFACE HEATING CU WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL LOCATIONS AND WE MAY GET SOME HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE...A JET STREAK WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH SOME VICINITY THUNDER.



&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE NEAR RECORD
COLD READINGS ON MONDAY:

...LOCATION......FORECAST....RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP...
WHEATON MN          64          72 IN 1949
SISSETON            64          70 IN 1993
WATERTOWN           64          61 IN 1962
ABERDEEN            66          65 IN 1962
MOBRIDGE            68          64 IN 1962
PIERRE              71          65 IN 1989


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN