Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222328 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Issued at 624 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Upper level ridging along with a surface low pressure system over
western SD is producing warm temperatures and gusty southerly winds.
The ridge and surface low will slowly track eastward tonight with
gusty, down-slope winds likely.

During the afternoon hours on Tuesday, the surface low pressure
system should be located over eastern ND with a trailing cold
front/dry line bisecting this CWA. While convection will be possible
along the front, warm temps at 700 mb may keep thunderstorms from
developing until 0Z. With an upper level trough of low pressure
closer to the region by 0Z, mid-level temps should cool off
allowing for convection to develop. While strong to severe storms
are possible, locally heavy rainfall maybe the main threat. PWATS and
specific humidity values are two standard deviations above climo,
especially along and east of the I-29 corridor. Storm motion
should be fairly slow as well, which leads to locally heavy

Wednesday through Wednesday night will be dry with breezy northerly

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

The upper trough across southern Canada will move quickly out of the
region late this week and allow west to southwest flow to develop
quickly across the area. This will usher more chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be Thursday night and again

Pattern looks pretty active with shortwave activity, so forecast is
broad brushed with Pops. Expect this to tighten up as we get closer
and timing can be nailed down. Temperatures will warm up from the
70s late week into the 80s over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the afternoon hours on Tuesday. A 50+ knot low level jet will
develop overnight, resulting in some low level wind shear at all
the TAF sites between 04Z and 13Z. A few showers or thunderstorms
may develop across the far eastern CWA after 21Z Tuesday,
possibly affecting KATY.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ267.



LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.